Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 19/10, 00:30

Prediction: Barquisimeto vs CD Lara

Team pages: Barquisimeto · CD Lara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Barquisimeto1.24

CD Lara1.45

1X2

31% 27% 41%

Barquisimeto Draw CD Lara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Barquisimeto 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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CD Lara 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Barquisimeto 0–1–2 CD Lara (3 last)

CD Lara2-1Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto0-1CD Lara
CD Lara1-1Barquisimeto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barquisimeto 1466 · CD Lara 1597

	Barquisimeto	Draw	CD Lara
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Lara (rating 1466 vs 1597).
H2H favours CD Lara: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barquisimeto	CD Lara
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	2 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	1.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.38 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:00 +9’	2.55	3.25	2.38
10:08 +7’	2.75▲	3.40▲	2.15▼
12:22 +9’	2.80▲	3.30▼	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barquisimeto 0–1–2 CD Lara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	2-1 HT 1-0	Barquisimeto
30/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Lara
05/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	CD Lara	1-1 HT 0-1	Barquisimeto

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	30	20	6	4	53	22	66
2	Barquisimeto	30	15	8	7	54	35	53
3	Yaracuyanos	30	14	7	9	44	30	49
4	Urena SC	30	12	11	7	43	36	47
5	Atletico El Vigia	31	11	8	12	42	52	41
6	Zamora II	30	11	7	12	46	46	40
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	31	9	7	15	38	47	34
8	Atletico Barinas	30	9	5	16	50	61	32
9	Real Frontera	30	4	3	23	25	66	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barquisimeto	CD Lara
Yaracuyanos	2-3 L	1-0 W
Atletico El Vigia	2-4 L	3-0 W
Atletico Barinas	2-1 W	1-0 W
Urena SC	3-0 W	1-0 W
Zamora II	2-0 W	2-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-1 D	1-2 L
Real Frontera	5-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barquisimeto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-3	2-3	2	7	L
03/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-4	1	7	L
30/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
16/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
05/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	4-0	5-1	6	4	W
03/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
30/08	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
23/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-5	4	2	L

CD Lara

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/10	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
01/10	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	4-0	6	6	W
19/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
17/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
13/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
06/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
03/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barquisimeto vs CD Lara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Lara win (41%). Probabilities: Barquisimeto 31%, draw 27%, CD Lara 41%.

How many goals are expected in Barquisimeto vs CD Lara?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Barquisimeto 1.24 · CD Lara 1.45), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barquisimeto vs CD Lara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.