Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 18/10, 21:30

Prediction: Urena SC vs Yaracuyanos

Team pages: Urena SC · Yaracuyanos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Urena SC1.4

Yaracuyanos1.26

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Urena SC Draw Yaracuyanos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Urena SC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLLDD

Yaracuyanos 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Urena SC 2–1–3 Yaracuyanos (6 last)

Yaracuyanos4-3Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos0-2Urena SC
Urena SC0-1Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos3-1Urena SC
Urena SC1-0Yaracuyanos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Urena SC 1457 · Yaracuyanos 1507

	Urena SC	Draw	Yaracuyanos
Our model	39%	28%	32%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yaracuyanos (rating 1457 vs 1507).
H2H favours Yaracuyanos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Urena SC	Yaracuyanos
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.5	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:58 +5’	2.25	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Urena SC 2–1–3 Yaracuyanos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	4-3 HT 2-2	Urena SC
31/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Yaracuyanos
04/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	0-2 HT 0-0	Urena SC
22/09/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	0-1 HT 0-1	Yaracuyanos
07/08/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	3-1 HT 1-1	Urena SC
12/05/24 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Yaracuyanos

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	30	20	6	4	53	22	66
2	Barquisimeto	30	15	8	7	54	35	53
3	Yaracuyanos	30	14	7	9	44	30	49
4	Urena SC	30	12	11	7	43	36	47
5	Atletico El Vigia	31	11	8	12	42	52	41
6	Zamora II	30	11	7	12	46	46	40
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	31	9	7	15	38	47	34
8	Atletico Barinas	30	9	5	16	50	61	32
9	Real Frontera	30	4	3	23	25	66	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Urena SC	Yaracuyanos
Atletico El Vigia	2-2 D	0-1 L
Atletico Barinas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Barquisimeto	0-3 L	3-2 W
Zamora II	0-3 L	4-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-2 W	3-0 W
Real Frontera	1-0 W	3-0 W
CD Lara	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Yaracuyanos (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Urena SC

DLLLWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/09	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
20/09	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	10	6	L
17/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	3-2	2	9	W
13/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
06/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	10	11	L
02/09	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	3-4	5	6	L
30/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	4	3	D

Yaracuyanos

WDWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	3-2	4	7	W
04/10	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	4-1	0	3	W
30/09	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	1	0	W
26/09	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	8	7	W
19/09	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
13/09	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
06/09	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
02/09	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	4-3	5	6	W
30/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Urena SC vs Yaracuyanos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Urena SC win (39%). Probabilities: Urena SC 39%, draw 28%, Yaracuyanos 33%.

How many goals are expected in Urena SC vs Yaracuyanos?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Urena SC 1.4 · Yaracuyanos 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Urena SC vs Yaracuyanos?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.