Football · Croatia HNL · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka

Team pages: Slaven Belupo · HNK Rijeka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Slaven Belupo0.87

HNK Rijeka1.76

1X2

18% 25% 58%

Slaven Belupo Draw HNK Rijeka

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Slaven Belupo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWLD

HNK Rijeka 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Slaven Belupo 0–2–4 HNK Rijeka (6 last)

HNK Rijeka2-0Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo0-2HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka2-2Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo1-1HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka2-0Slaven Belupo
HNK Rijeka1-0Slaven Belupo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Slaven Belupo 1443 · HNK Rijeka 1568

	Slaven Belupo	Draw	HNK Rijeka
Our model	17%	26%	57%
Market	18%	24%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HNK Rijeka (rating 1443 vs 1568).
H2H favours HNK Rijeka: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Slaven Belupo	HNK Rijeka
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	3.2 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.70

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +7’	5.00	3.70	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Slaven Belupo 0–2–4 HNK Rijeka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Croatia Cup	HNK Rijeka	2-0 HT 0-0	Slaven Belupo
04/04/26 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	0-2 HT 0-2	HNK Rijeka
24/01/26 Croatia HNL	HNK Rijeka	2-2 HT 0-1	Slaven Belupo
18/10/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	1-1 HT 0-1	HNK Rijeka
03/08/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Rijeka	2-0 HT 0-0	Slaven Belupo
29/05/25 Croatia Cup	HNK Rijeka	1-0 HT 0-0	Slaven Belupo

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Zagreb	7	5	1	1	17	9	16
2	Hajduk Split	8	5	1	2	16	8	16
3	NK Osijek	8	5	1	2	17	11	16
4	NK Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13	7	15
5	HNK Rijeka	7	4	2	1	13	7	14
6	Istra 1961	8	2	3	3	14	13	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	2	1	5	11	16	7
8	Slaven Belupo	8	2	1	5	7	16	7
9	HNK Gorica	8	1	2	5	5	12	5
10	NK Rudes	8	1	1	6	10	24	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Slaven Belupo	HNK Rijeka
NK Rudes	2-2 D	2-1 W
Hajduk Split	0-1 L	3-0 W
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-1 W	1-1 D
NK Osijek	0-3 L	4-1 W
HNK Gorica	2-0 W	0-0 D
Istra 1961	0-3 L	3-2 W
NK Varazdin	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HNK Rijeka (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Slaven Belupo

LLLLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	7	7	D
13/09	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
06/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
30/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
22/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
31/07	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
22/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
17/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-4	5	1	L

HNK Rijeka

WDWWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	0	6	W
12/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
05/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	3-1	4-1	8	2	W
31/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
23/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	3-2	6	1	W
16/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
23/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
17/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	1-0	3-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HNK Rijeka win (58%). Probabilities: Slaven Belupo 18%, draw 25%, HNK Rijeka 58%.

How many goals are expected in Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Slaven Belupo 0.87 · HNK Rijeka 1.76), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.