Football · Croatia HNL · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

Team pages: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · NK Varazdin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.14

NK Varazdin1.41

1X2

29% 28% 42%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Draw NK Varazdin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLLLDL

NK Varazdin 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDDD

Head-to-head

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–2–2 NK Varazdin (6 last)

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2-1NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin1-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-1NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin4-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1-0NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1495 · NK Varazdin 1571

	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Draw	NK Varazdin
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Varazdin (rating 1495 vs 1571).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.4	2.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +18’	3.00	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–2–2 NK Varazdin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Europe Friendlies	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Varazdin
09/05/26 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
07/03/26 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Varazdin
07/12/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	4-2 HT 0-2	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
20/09/25 Croatia HNL	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Varazdin
26/04/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Zagreb	7	5	1	1	17	9	16
2	Hajduk Split	8	5	1	2	16	8	16
3	NK Osijek	8	5	1	2	17	11	16
4	NK Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13	7	15
5	HNK Rijeka	7	4	2	1	13	7	14
6	Istra 1961	8	2	3	3	14	13	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	8	2	1	5	11	16	7
8	Slaven Belupo	8	2	1	5	7	16	7
9	HNK Gorica	8	1	2	5	5	12	5
10	NK Rudes	8	1	1	6	10	24	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb	2-3 L	1-3 L
HNK Rijeka	1-1 D	2-0 W
Slaven Belupo	1-2 L	4-1 W
Hajduk Split	0-2 L	2-1 W
NK Rudes	1-4 L	2-0 W
NK Osijek	0-1 L	0-0 D
HNK Gorica	3-1 W	2-2 D
Istra 1961	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Varazdin (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

DDWWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
12/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
21/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
15/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	3-1	9	8	W
01/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
16/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	1-1	8	1	D

NK Varazdin

WWWWWLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
14/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
04/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
29/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
09/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
02/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
23/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Varazdin win (42%). Probabilities: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 29%, draw 28%, NK Varazdin 42%.

How many goals are expected in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

The model expects 2.55 goals (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.14 · NK Varazdin 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.