Football · Thailand Division 3 · 04/10, 13:00

Prediction: Khonkaen vs Ubon Krua Napat FC

Team pages: Khonkaen · Ubon Krua Napat FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Khonkaen2.02

Ubon Krua Napat FC0.77

1X2

67% 20% 13%

Khonkaen Draw Ubon Krua Napat FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Khonkaen 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWDW

Ubon Krua Napat FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLWLDL

Head-to-head

Khonkaen 5–1–0 Ubon Krua Napat FC (6 last)

Ubon Krua Napat FC0-1Khonkaen
Khonkaen3-0Ubon Krua Napat FC
Khonkaen2-0Ubon Krua Napat FC
Khonkaen1-0Ubon Krua Napat FC
Ubon Krua Napat FC1-1Khonkaen
Khonkaen1-0Ubon Krua Napat FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Khonkaen 1619 · Ubon Krua Napat FC 1446

	Khonkaen	Draw	Ubon Krua Napat FC
Our model	66%	22%	12%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Khonkaen (rating 1619 vs 1446).
H2H favours Khonkaen: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Khonkaen	Ubon Krua Napat FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.5	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +34’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Khonkaen 5–1–0 Ubon Krua Napat FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Thailand Division 3	Ubon Krua Napat FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Khonkaen
25/10/25 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	3-0 HT 1-0	Ubon Krua Napat FC
14/09/24 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	2-0 HT 2-0	Ubon Krua Napat FC
03/02/24 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	1-0 HT 1-0	Ubon Krua Napat FC
19/11/23 Thailand Division 3	Ubon Krua Napat FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Khonkaen
28/01/23 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	1-0 HT 1-0	Ubon Krua Napat FC

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Khonkaen	Ubon Krua Napat FC
Udon United	2-2 D	0-3 L
Udon Banjan United	1-0 W	2-5 L
Korat City FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Muang Loei United	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Khonkaen (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Khonkaen

WDWDWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Esan Fighter FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
20/09	Udon United Thailand Division 3	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
08/03	Yasothon FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
22/02	Udon Banjan United Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/02	Ubon Krua Napat FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/02	Surin Khongcheemoon FC Thailand Division 3	2-0	6-0	3	3	W
01/02	Surin City FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
26/01	Korat City FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/11	Roi-Et PB United Thailand Division 3	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
09/11	Muang Loei United Thailand Division 3	0-0	2-0	3	7	W

Ubon Krua Napat FC

DLLWDLWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Udon Banjan United Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-5	4	3	L
18/09	Korat City FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
15/02	Khonkaen Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/02	Korat City FC Thailand Division 3	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
31/01	EUMT FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/01	Muang Loei United Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
23/11	Khonkaen Mordindang FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/11	Udon United Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
25/10	Khonkaen Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
12/10	EUMT FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Khonkaen vs Ubon Krua Napat FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Khonkaen win (67%). Probabilities: Khonkaen 67%, draw 20%, Ubon Krua Napat FC 13%.

How many goals are expected in Khonkaen vs Ubon Krua Napat FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Khonkaen 2.02 · Ubon Krua Napat FC 0.77), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Khonkaen vs Ubon Krua Napat FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.