Football · Thailand Division 3 · 04/10, 10:30

Prediction: Samut Songkhram City vs Thonburi United FC

Team pages: Thonburi United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Samut Songkhram City0.67

Thonburi United FC1.59

1X2

16% 24% 60%

Samut Songkhram City Draw Thonburi United FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Samut Songkhram City 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLDLLD

Thonburi United FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLDDW

Head-to-head

Samut Songkhram City 1–1–4 Thonburi United FC (6 last)

Thonburi United FC0-0Samut Songkhram City
Samut Songkhram City0-1Thonburi United FC
Samut Songkhram City1-0Thonburi United FC
Thonburi United FC4-0Samut Songkhram City
Samut Songkhram City0-3Thonburi United FC
Thonburi United FC3-2Samut Songkhram City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samut Songkhram City 1426 · Thonburi United FC 1522

	Samut Songkhram City	Draw	Thonburi United FC
Our model	15%	27%	58%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thonburi United FC (rating 1426 vs 1522).
H2H favours Thonburi United FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samut Songkhram City	Thonburi United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.10

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +3’	5.25	4.10	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Samut Songkhram City 1–1–4 Thonburi United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Thailand Division 3 Cup	Thonburi United FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Samut Songkhram City
04/02/26 Thailand Division 3 Cup	Samut Songkhram City	0-1 HT 0-1	Thonburi United FC
06/12/25 Thailand Division 3 Cup	Samut Songkhram City	1-0 HT 1-0	Thonburi United FC
27/09/25 Thailand Division 3	Thonburi United FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Samut Songkhram City
15/12/24 Thailand Division 3 Cup	Samut Songkhram City	0-3 HT 0-1	Thonburi United FC
10/11/24 Thailand Division 3	Thonburi United FC	3-2 HT 2-2	Samut Songkhram City

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samut Songkhram City	Thonburi United FC
Raj Pracha	2-4 L	2-1 W
Samut Sakhon	0-3 L	3-3 D
Thap Luang United	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Thonburi United FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samut Songkhram City

DLLDDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
15/03	Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
08/03	Hua Hin City Thailand Division 3	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
01/03	Nonthaburi United Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
15/02	Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-3	3	6	L
10/02	VRN Muangnont FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/01	Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
24/01	Suphanburi FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
11/01	Thap Luang United Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
26/11	Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	14	2	D

Thonburi United FC

LWWLWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Assumption United Thailand Division 3	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/05	Nara United Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
10/05	Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3	2-2	3-3	1	1	D
03/05	PT Satun Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
29/04	Samutsakhon City Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
29/04	Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
26/04	PT Satun Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
22/03	Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
14/03	Assumption United Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
07/03	Thap Luang United Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samut Songkhram City vs Thonburi United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Thonburi United FC win (60%). Probabilities: Samut Songkhram City 16%, draw 24%, Thonburi United FC 60%.

How many goals are expected in Samut Songkhram City vs Thonburi United FC?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Samut Songkhram City 0.67 · Thonburi United FC 1.59), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Samut Songkhram City vs Thonburi United FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.