Football · Algeria Division 2 · 15/10, 16:00

Prediction: USM El Harrach vs RC Arba

Team pages: USM El Harrach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

USM El Harrach2.2

RC Arba0.2

1X2

85% 13% 2%

USM El Harrach Draw RC Arba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 62%

Most likely score

2-0 22%

Recent form · 10 last

USM El Harrach 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWDWL

RC Arba 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDWLWLWL

Head-to-head

USM El Harrach 1–2–3 RC Arba (6 last)

RC Arba2-0USM El Harrach
USM El Harrach2-1RC Arba
RC Arba2-0USM El Harrach
USM El Harrach1-1RC Arba
RC Arba0-0USM El Harrach
USM El Harrach1-3RC Arba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USM El Harrach 1522 · RC Arba 1473

	USM El Harrach	Draw	RC Arba
Our model	84%	14%	2%
Market	86%	12%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours USM El Harrach (rating 1522 vs 1473).
H2H favours RC Arba: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USM El Harrach	RC Arba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/75/13%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.08

X7.50

251.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.77

2 (+2)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.08▼	Bet365 1.08
X	4.50 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50
2	12.00 → 51.00▲	Bet365 51.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:09 +6’	1.25	4.50	12.00
23:36 +28’	1.08▼	7.50▲	51.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USM El Harrach 1–2–3 RC Arba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Algeria Division 2	RC Arba	2-0 HT 1-0	USM El Harrach
18/11/25 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	2-1 HT 1-0	RC Arba
17/04/21 Algeria Division 2	RC Arba	2-0 HT 0-0	USM El Harrach
13/02/21 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	1-1 HT 0-1	RC Arba
01/02/20 Algeria Division 2	RC Arba	0-0	USM El Harrach
02/09/19 Algeria Division 2	USM El Harrach	1-3 HT 1-1	RC Arba

Standings · Algeria Division 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Center-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RC Kouba	4	4	0	0	11	1	12
2	USM Blida	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
3	GC Mascara	4	2	2	0	5	1	8
4	MC Saida	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	USM El Harrach	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
6	IRB Sidi M'hamed Benali	4	2	1	1	7	7	7
7	ASM Oran	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
8	WA Mostaganem	4	1	2	1	7	7	5
9	ES Mostaganem	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
10	WA Tlemcen	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
11	ESM Kolea	4	2	0	2	4	4	3
12	NA Hussein Dey	4	1	0	3	4	6	3
13	MC El Bayadh	4	0	2	2	0	2	2
14	JSM Tiaret	4	0	1	3	3	7	1
15	JRB Taghit	4	0	1	3	1	7	1
16	RC Arba	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USM El Harrach	RC Arba
RC Kouba	0-4 L	0-1 L
ASM Oran	1-0 W	0-1 L
WA Mostaganem	3-0 W	2-2 D
GC Mascara	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: USM El Harrach (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USM El Harrach

LWWDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	RC Kouba Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-4	11	3	L
03/10	JRB Taghit Algeria Division 2	–	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	JSM Tiaret Algeria Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
19/09	ASM Oran Algeria Division 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	US Chaouia Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
08/05	WA Mostaganem Algeria Division 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
01/05	GC Mascara Algeria Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
25/04	ESM Kolea Algeria Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
18/04	JS Tixeraine Algeria Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
10/04	ASM Oran Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-2	3	1	L

RC Arba

LLDDWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	JS El Biar Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-4	2	2	L
01/05	US Bechar Djedid Algeria Division 2	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
25/04	CR Temouchent Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
18/04	CRB Adrar Algeria Division 2	0-0	2-0	14	3	W
10/04	GC Mascara Algeria Division 2	0-0	1-2	0	2	L
04/04	USM El Harrach Algeria Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
28/03	MC Saida Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	9	D
14/03	WA Mostaganem Algeria Division 2	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
07/03	RC Kouba Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
28/02	ASM Oran Algeria Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USM El Harrach vs RC Arba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USM El Harrach win (85%). Probabilities: USM El Harrach 85%, draw 13%, RC Arba 2%.

How many goals are expected in USM El Harrach vs RC Arba?

The model expects 2.39 goals (USM El Harrach 2.2 · RC Arba 0.2), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in USM El Harrach vs RC Arba?

The model gives a 62% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.