Football · Algeria Division 2 · 09/10, 16:00

Prediction: USM Annaba vs US Chaouia

Team pages: USM Annaba · US Chaouia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.82Total

USM Annaba1.22

US Chaouia0.6

1X2

51% 31% 18%

USM Annaba Draw US Chaouia

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

USM Annaba 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLWLW

US Chaouia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLDLD

Head-to-head

USM Annaba 3–1–2 US Chaouia (6 last)

USM Annaba1-0US Chaouia
US Chaouia0-0USM Annaba
USM Annaba1-2US Chaouia
US Chaouia3-2USM Annaba
USM Annaba5-0US Chaouia
US Chaouia0-1USM Annaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USM Annaba 1510 · US Chaouia 1524

	USM Annaba	Draw	US Chaouia
Our model	50%	33%	17%
Market	52%	29%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 1.82 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours USM Annaba: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USM Annaba	US Chaouia
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +4’	1.73	3.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USM Annaba 3–1–2 US Chaouia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Algeria Division 2	USM Annaba	1-0 HT 1-0	US Chaouia
21/10/25 Algeria Division 2	US Chaouia	0-0 HT 0-0	USM Annaba
26/04/25 Algeria Division 2	USM Annaba	1-2 HT 0-0	US Chaouia
14/12/24 Algeria Division 2	US Chaouia	3-2 HT 0-2	USM Annaba
16/05/23 Algeria Division 2	USM Annaba	5-0 HT 1-0	US Chaouia
01/01/23 Algeria Division 2	US Chaouia	0-1 HT 0-1	USM Annaba

Standings · Algeria Division 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Center-East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	USM Annaba	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
2	JSM Skikda	3	2	0	1	3	1	6
3	NC Magra	3	2	0	1	3	4	6
4	MO Constantine	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
4	MSP Batna	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
6	JS Azazga	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	AS Khroub	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
8	MO Bejaia	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
9	Paradou AC	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	NRB Beni Oulbene	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
11	IRB Nezla	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	US Chaouia	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
13	JS Djijel	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	NRB Teleghma	3	0	1	2	3	5	1
15	CA Batna	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	CR Beni Thour	2	0	0	2	2	5	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USM Annaba	US Chaouia
AS Khroub	0-1 L	0-0 D
NC Magra	3-0 W	0-1 L
MO Bejaia	0-1 L	0-1 L
JS Djijel	0-1 L	3-1 W
MO Constantine	0-0 D	3-1 W
US Biskra	3-0 W	1-1 D
IB Khemis El Khechna	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: US Chaouia (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USM Annaba

WWDDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Paradou AC Algeria Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
26/09	AS Khroub Algeria Division 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/09	NC Magra Algeria Division 2	1-0	3-0	0	3	W
09/05	CA Batna Algeria Division 2	0-2	0-2	0	0	L
02/05	MO Bejaia Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
21/04	JS Djijel Algeria Division 2	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
17/04	MO Constantine Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
10/04	CR Beni Thour Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/04	US Biskra Algeria Division 2	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
28/03	IB Khemis El Khechna Algeria Division 2	1-0	2-1	4	4	W

US Chaouia

LWWWDWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	AS Khroub Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
26/09	NC Magra Algeria Division 2	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
18/09	NRB Beni Oulbene Algeria Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	CR Temouchent Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
16/05	USM El Harrach Algeria Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
09/05	US Biskra Algeria Division 2	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
02/05	JS Djijel Algeria Division 2	1-1	3-1	10	3	W
21/04	MO Constantine Algeria Division 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
17/04	IB Khemis El Khechna Algeria Division 2	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
10/04	MO Bejaia Algeria Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USM Annaba vs US Chaouia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USM Annaba win (51%). Probabilities: USM Annaba 51%, draw 31%, US Chaouia 18%.

How many goals are expected in USM Annaba vs US Chaouia?

The model expects 1.82 goals (USM Annaba 1.22 · US Chaouia 0.6), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in USM Annaba vs US Chaouia?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.