Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 09/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ethio Electric FC vs Adama City

Team pages: Ethio Electric FC · Adama City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.81Total

Ethio Electric FC0.95

Adama City0.86

1X2

35% 34% 30%

Ethio Electric FC Draw Adama City

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Ethio Electric FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLDWDW

Adama City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLWDLW

Head-to-head

Ethio Electric FC 2–2–2 Adama City (6 last)

Adama City0-1Ethio Electric FC
Ethio Electric FC0-0Adama City
Ethio Electric FC0-2Adama City
Adama City0-3Ethio Electric FC
Adama City2-0Ethio Electric FC
Ethio Electric FC2-2Adama City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ethio Electric FC 1509 · Adama City 1488

	Ethio Electric FC	Draw	Adama City
Our model	35%	35%	30%
Market	36%	33%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 1.81 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ethio Electric FC	Adama City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.3	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.93

Under 1.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.84 ★
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.23

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:02 +7’	2.50	2.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:28 +64’	2.63	2.57	2.99
21:13 +205’	2.64▲	2.55▼	3.00▲
08:49 +62’	2.84▲	2.22▼	3.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ethio Electric FC 2–2–2 Adama City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Ethiopia Premier League	Adama City	0-1 HT 0-1	Ethio Electric FC
30/11/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethio Electric FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Adama City
28/02/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethio Electric FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Adama City
03/02/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Adama City	0-3 HT 0-1	Ethio Electric FC
21/04/23 Ethiopia Premier League	Adama City	2-0 HT 0-0	Ethio Electric FC
24/10/22 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethio Electric FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Adama City

Standings · Ethiopia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adama City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bahir Dar Kenema FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mechal SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ethio Electric FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ethiopian Coffee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ethiopian Insurance FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fasil Kenema	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gamo Chencha	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hadiya Hossana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halaba City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hawassa City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Negelle Arsi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kedus Giorgis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shaggar City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sidama Bunna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Welwalo Adigrat	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolaita Dicha	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ethio Electric FC	Adama City
Sidama Bunna	1-0 W	0-1 L
Hawassa City FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Wolaita Dicha	2-1 W	0-2 L
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ethiopia Nigd Bank	1-2 L	2-1 W
Dire Dawa	1-1 D	1-1 D
Welwalo Adigrat	1-2 L	0-0 D
Fasil Kenema	3-1 W	1-3 L
Shire Endaselassie FC	0-1 L	4-0 W
Mechal SC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Adama City (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ethio Electric FC

LLWLDLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
28/06	Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
22/06	Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
16/06	Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
29/05	Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-2	0	2	L
20/05	Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	11	D
16/05	Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/05	Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	3-1	2	8	W
05/05	Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
29/04	Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Adama City

DDWLDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League	3-1	3-2	6	1	W
28/06	Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
21/06	Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
15/06	Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
30/05	Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/05	Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
16/05	Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
09/05	Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League	2-0	4-0	0	8	W
04/05	Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
29/04	Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-1	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ethio Electric FC vs Adama City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ethio Electric FC win (35%). Probabilities: Ethio Electric FC 35%, draw 34%, Adama City 30%.

How many goals are expected in Ethio Electric FC vs Adama City?

The model expects 1.81 goals (Ethio Electric FC 0.95 · Adama City 0.86), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ethio Electric FC vs Adama City?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.