Football · Argentina Nacional B · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: Ferrocarril Midland vs Atletico Rafaela

Team pages: Ferrocarril Midland · Atletico Rafaela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Ferrocarril Midland1.53

Atletico Rafaela0.71

1X2

56% 28% 16%

Ferrocarril Midland Draw Atletico Rafaela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferrocarril Midland 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWWLD

Atletico Rafaela 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWLLWL

Head-to-head

Ferrocarril Midland 0–1 Atletico Rafaela (1 last)

Atletico Rafaela1-0Ferrocarril Midland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferrocarril Midland 1496 · Atletico Rafaela 1501

	Ferrocarril Midland	Draw	Atletico Rafaela
Our model	56%	28%	16%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferrocarril Midland	Atletico Rafaela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.30

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.86 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:44 +3’	1.65	3.30	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +6’	1.86	3.07	4.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferrocarril Midland 0–0–1 Atletico Rafaela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Atletico Rafaela	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferrocarril Midland

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	32	15	13	4	32	15	58
2	Club Atletico Temperley	32	15	11	6	38	26	56
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48	40	54
4	CA Atlanta	31	16	4	11	35	28	52
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	31	13	9	9	32	27	48
6	Ferrocarril Midland	31	13	8	10	34	26	47
7	San Martin SJ	31	12	9	10	33	30	45
8	Deportivo Maipu	31	12	8	11	38	31	44
9	CA Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	43
10	Atletico Rafaela	31	11	9	11	25	27	42
11	San Martin de Tucuman	31	9	13	9	34	32	40
12	Quilmes	32	10	9	13	30	27	39
13	Nueva Chicago	31	9	9	13	23	29	36
14	Agropecuario	31	9	9	13	26	35	36
15	Almagro	31	9	8	14	26	37	35
16	Patronato Parana	31	6	16	9	27	31	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	30
18	CA Guemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferrocarril Midland	Atletico Rafaela
Agropecuario	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tristan Suarez	0-1 L	2-1 W
CA Guemes	2-0 W	0-0 D
Chacarita Juniors	1-0 W	1-0 W
San Martin SJ	2-3 L	1-1 D
Nueva Chicago	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ferrocarril Midland (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferrocarril Midland

WDLWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
27/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
20/09	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
06/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
03/09	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
29/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
23/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
14/08	Acassuso Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
08/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Atletico Rafaela

WDWDDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
19/09	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	2-2	4-2	1	6	W
13/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
06/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
29/08	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
24/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
15/08	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
08/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
01/08	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferrocarril Midland vs Atletico Rafaela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferrocarril Midland win (56%). Probabilities: Ferrocarril Midland 56%, draw 28%, Atletico Rafaela 16%.

How many goals are expected in Ferrocarril Midland vs Atletico Rafaela?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Ferrocarril Midland 1.53 · Atletico Rafaela 0.71), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferrocarril Midland vs Atletico Rafaela?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.