Football · Argentina Nacional B · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: San Martin de Tucuman vs Ferrocarril Midland

Team pages: San Martin de Tucuman · Ferrocarril Midland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

San Martin de Tucuman1.37

Ferrocarril Midland1.07

1X2

42% 31% 27%

San Martin de Tucuman Draw Ferrocarril Midland

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin de Tucuman 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDLWLDW

Ferrocarril Midland 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWLDW

Head-to-head

San Martin de Tucuman 0–1 Ferrocarril Midland (1 last)

Ferrocarril Midland2-0San Martin de Tucuman

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin de Tucuman 1488 · Ferrocarril Midland 1517

	San Martin de Tucuman	Draw	Ferrocarril Midland
Our model	43%	30%	28%
Market	41%	33%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin de Tucuman	Ferrocarril Midland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.80

23.50

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.81

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.88
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.94 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +1’	2.25	2.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +8’	2.10	2.88	3.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin de Tucuman 0–0–1 Ferrocarril Midland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Ferrocarril Midland	2-0 HT 1-0	San Martin de Tucuman

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	33	15	14	4	32	15	59
2	CA Atlanta	33	18	4	11	39	30	58
3	Club Atletico Temperley	32	15	11	6	38	26	56
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48	40	54
5	Ferrocarril Midland	33	14	9	10	38	26	51
6	Gimnasia y Tiro	32	13	9	10	32	28	48
7	Deportivo Maipu	32	13	8	11	39	31	47
8	CA Colegiales	33	13	8	12	32	31	47
9	San Martin SJ	32	12	9	11	34	32	45
10	San Martin de Tucuman	33	10	13	10	35	33	43
11	Atletico Rafaela	33	11	9	13	27	34	42
12	Almagro	33	11	8	14	30	39	41
13	Agropecuario	33	10	10	13	27	35	40
14	Quilmes	33	10	9	14	30	28	39
15	Nueva Chicago	32	9	9	14	23	30	36
16	Patronato Parana	32	6	16	10	27	32	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	9	6	18	25	35	33
18	CA Guemes	32	5	8	19	23	54	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin de Tucuman	Ferrocarril Midland
Atletico Rafaela	2-4 L	4-0 W
Agropecuario	3-0 W	0-0 D
Tristan Suarez	0-2 L	0-1 L
CA Guemes	1-1 D	2-0 W
Chacarita Juniors	2-1 W	1-0 W
San Martin SJ	1-1 D	2-3 L
Nueva Chicago	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ferrocarril Midland (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin de Tucuman

LDDWDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
28/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
19/09	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-4	4	6	L
13/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
30/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
23/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/08	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-2	8	9	L

Ferrocarril Midland

DLWLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	2-0	4-0	4	2	W
04/10	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
27/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
20/09	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
06/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-3	8	3	L
03/09	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
29/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
23/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
14/08	Acassuso Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin de Tucuman vs Ferrocarril Midland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin de Tucuman win (42%). Probabilities: San Martin de Tucuman 42%, draw 31%, Ferrocarril Midland 27%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin de Tucuman vs Ferrocarril Midland?

The model expects 2.44 goals (San Martin de Tucuman 1.37 · Ferrocarril Midland 1.07), with a 58% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin de Tucuman vs Ferrocarril Midland?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.