Football · England Super League Women · 04/10, 14:00
Prediction: Man Utd (W) vs Liverpool (W)
Team pages: Man Utd (W) · Liverpool (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Man Utd (W)1.78
Liverpool (W)1.19
1X2
Man Utd (W)
Draw
Liverpool (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Man Utd (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Liverpool (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Man Utd (W)
4–1–1
Liverpool (W)
(6 last)
- Man Utd (W)3-1Liverpool (W)
- Liverpool (W)0-2Man Utd (W)
- Man Utd (W)2-2Liverpool (W)
- Liverpool (W)3-1Man Utd (W)
- Man Utd (W)4-0Liverpool (W)
- Man Utd (W)2-0Liverpool (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Man Utd (W) 1504 · Liverpool (W) 1498
| Man Utd (W) | Draw | Liverpool (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Man Utd (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man Utd (W) | Liverpool (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man Utd (W) 4–1–1 Liverpool (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 England Super League Women | Man Utd (W) | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Liverpool (W) |
| 28/09/25 England Super League Women | Liverpool (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Man Utd (W) |
| 20/08/25 Women’s Friendly | Man Utd (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Liverpool (W) |
| 14/03/25 England Super League Women | Liverpool (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Man Utd (W) |
| 08/12/24 England Super League Women | Man Utd (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Liverpool (W) |
| 02/10/24 England League Cup Women | Man Utd (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Liverpool (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Chelsea (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | London City Lionesses (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Liverpool (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Everton (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| 9 | Man Utd (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | Brighton (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
| 13 | Aston Villa (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| 14 | Charlton (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man Utd (W) | Liverpool (W) |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham (W) | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Chelsea (W) | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Brighton (W) | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Tottenham (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Man City (W) | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Everton (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man Utd (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/03 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 15/02 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Liverpool (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Charlton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Arsenal (W) England Super League Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Man City (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/02 | Chelsea (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man Utd (W) vs Liverpool (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Man Utd (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Man Utd (W) 50%, draw 25%, Liverpool (W) 24%.
How many goals are expected in Man Utd (W) vs Liverpool (W)?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Man Utd (W) 1.78 · Liverpool (W) 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Man Utd (W) vs Liverpool (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.