Football · England Super League Women · 27/09, 17:30
Prediction: Chelsea (W) vs Arsenal (W)
Team pages: Chelsea (W) · Arsenal (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Chelsea (W)1.71
Arsenal (W)1.07
1X2
Chelsea (W)
Draw
Arsenal (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Chelsea (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Arsenal (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chelsea (W)
3–1–2
Arsenal (W)
(6 last)
- Chelsea (W)1-0Arsenal (W)
- Arsenal (W)3-1Chelsea (W)
- Chelsea (W)0-2Arsenal (W)
- Arsenal (W)1-1Chelsea (W)
- Chelsea (W)1-0Arsenal (W)
- Arsenal (W)1-2Chelsea (W)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelsea (W) (rating 1646 vs 1605).
- H2H favours Chelsea (W): 3-1-2.
- High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chelsea (W) | Arsenal (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.8 | 2.8 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.6 | 3.1 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelsea (W) 3–1–2 Arsenal (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 UEFA Women's Champions League | Chelsea (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal (W) |
| 24/03/26 UEFA Women's Champions League | Arsenal (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Chelsea (W) |
| 24/01/26 England Super League Women | Chelsea (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Arsenal (W) |
| 08/11/25 England Super League Women | Arsenal (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chelsea (W) |
| 26/01/25 England Super League Women | Chelsea (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal (W) |
| 12/10/24 England Super League Women | Arsenal (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Chelsea (W) |
Standings · England Super League Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Chelsea (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Arsenal (W) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Liverpool (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Tottenham (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Everton (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | West Ham (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Brighton (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Aston Villa (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Birmingham (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 13 | Man Utd (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chelsea (W) | Arsenal (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa (W) | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Leicester (W) | 3-1 W | 7-0 W |
| Everton (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| London City Lionesses (W) | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Brighton (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Liverpool (W) | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Tottenham (W) | 2-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 7 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chelsea (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Man Utd (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
3-1 | 3-1 | 13 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 29/03 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
3-3 | 4-3 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/03 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 15/02 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 08/02 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Arsenal (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Crystal Palace (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Liverpool (W) England Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | Everton (W) England Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Aston Villa (W) England Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | Brighton (W) England Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Leicester (W) England Super League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Tottenham (W) England Super League Women |
3-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | West Ham (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | London City Lionesses (W) England Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chelsea (W) vs Arsenal (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelsea (W) win (51%). Probabilities: Chelsea (W) 51%, draw 26%, Arsenal (W) 23%.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea (W) vs Arsenal (W)?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Chelsea (W) 1.71 · Arsenal (W) 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea (W) vs Arsenal (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.