Football · USA USL Championship · 21/10, 23:00

Prediction: Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Sporting JAX · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Sporting JAX1.2

Louisville City FC1.84

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Sporting JAX Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting JAX 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLL

Louisville City FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDLWDWW

Head-to-head

Sporting JAX 0–1 Louisville City FC (1 last)

Louisville City FC1-0Sporting JAX

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louisville City FC (rating 1407 vs 1558).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting JAX	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.8	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.96

Under 3.251.83

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:23

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.39▲	Pinn 6.39
X	5.11 → 5.20▲	Pinn 5.20
2	1.36 → 1.38▲	Pinn 1.38

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:22 +5’	6.25	5.11	1.36
02:13 +9’	6.39▲	5.20▲	1.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting JAX 0–0–1 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting JAX

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	17	7	5	50	26	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	15	5	9	55	35	50
3	Detroit City FC	29	14	8	7	34	21	50
4	Louisville City FC	28	12	7	9	49	43	43
5	Rhode Island FC	29	12	6	11	41	31	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	12	6	11	31	29	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	9	13	7	33	32	40
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	9	7	13	35	40	34
10	Loudoun United FC	28	5	12	11	34	45	27
11	Birmingham Legion FC	27	5	11	11	37	43	26
12	Brooklyn FC	28	5	6	17	30	57	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	3	5	20	32	74	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting JAX	Louisville City FC
Loudoun United FC	1-4 L	2-1 W
Hartford Athletic	0-2 L	2-2 D
Rhode Island FC	0-3 L	1-1 D
Indy Eleven	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting JAX

LLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/10	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
26/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
17/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
06/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L

Louisville City FC

DWLDDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
11/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Louisville City FC win (51%). Probabilities: Sporting JAX 24%, draw 25%, Louisville City FC 51%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Sporting JAX 1.2 · Louisville City FC 1.84), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.