Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 04/10, 02:00

Prediction: CD Walter Ferretti vs Jalapa

Team pages: CD Walter Ferretti · Jalapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

CD Walter Ferretti1.67

Jalapa0.93

1X2

54% 26% 20%

CD Walter Ferretti Draw Jalapa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Walter Ferretti 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLLDL

Jalapa 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

CD Walter Ferretti 1–2–3 Jalapa (6 last)

Jalapa1-0CD Walter Ferretti
Jalapa3-0CD Walter Ferretti
Jalapa1-1CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti0-0Jalapa
CD Walter Ferretti3-1Jalapa
Jalapa3-0CD Walter Ferretti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Walter Ferretti 1457 · Jalapa 1417

	CD Walter Ferretti	Draw	Jalapa
Our model	54%	27%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Walter Ferretti (rating 1457 vs 1417).
H2H favours Jalapa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Walter Ferretti	Jalapa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +18’	1.65	3.60	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Walter Ferretti 1–2–3 Jalapa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti
30/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	3-0 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti
26/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti
22/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	0-0 HT 0-0	Jalapa
16/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	CD Walter Ferretti	3-1 HT 2-0	Jalapa
13/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	3-0 HT 3-0	CD Walter Ferretti

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	9	7	2	0	27	9	23
2	Diriangen	9	6	3	0	18	7	21
3	Real Esteli	9	5	3	1	17	6	18
4	UNAN Managua	9	5	2	2	11	7	17
5	San Marcos FC	9	3	2	4	9	12	11
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	9	3	2	4	9	17	11
7	Matagalpa FC	9	3	0	6	4	16	9
8	CD Walter Ferretti	9	2	1	6	12	16	7
9	Rancho Santana FC	9	1	2	6	7	14	5
10	Jalapa	9	1	1	7	4	14	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Walter Ferretti	Jalapa
Managua FC	2-3 L	0-3 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
San Marcos FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
UNAN Managua	0-1 L	1-2 L
Rancho Santana FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Real Esteli	1-4 L	0-1 L
Matagalpa FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
Diriangen	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: CD Walter Ferretti (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Walter Ferretti

DLLWLWLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-1	2-3	6	7	L
02/09	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
31/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
24/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
16/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
08/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
03/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
24/07	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
19/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
28/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	6	D

Jalapa

LWLLLLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
03/09	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	0	0	D
30/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
23/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Walter Ferretti vs Jalapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Walter Ferretti win (54%). Probabilities: CD Walter Ferretti 54%, draw 26%, Jalapa 20%.

How many goals are expected in CD Walter Ferretti vs Jalapa?

The model expects 2.6 goals (CD Walter Ferretti 1.67 · Jalapa 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Walter Ferretti vs Jalapa?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.