Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 03/10, 17:00

Prediction: UE Tona vs Badalona

Team pages: UE Tona · Badalona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

UE Tona0.89

Badalona1.4

1X2

23% 28% 48%

UE Tona Draw Badalona

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UE Tona 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLWLWLL

Badalona 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

UE Tona 1–3–2 Badalona (6 last)

UE Tona2-2Badalona
Badalona0-0UE Tona
UE Tona0-0Badalona
Badalona4-0UE Tona
UE Tona3-1Badalona
Badalona3-0UE Tona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UE Tona 1468 · Badalona 1465

	UE Tona	Draw	Badalona
Our model	23%	30%	48%
Market	24%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Badalona: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UE Tona	Badalona
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.5	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.25

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.97 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:57 +16’	3.75	3.25	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:42 +31’	3.67	3.07	1.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UE Tona 1–3–2 Badalona

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Club Friendly List	UE Tona	2-2 HT 1-1	Badalona
04/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	Badalona	0-0 HT 0-0	UE Tona
23/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	0-0 HT 0-0	Badalona
26/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	Badalona	4-0 HT 1-0	UE Tona
15/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	3-1	Badalona
10/08/24 Spain Copa Federacion	Badalona	3-0 HT 1-0	UE Tona

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Montanesa	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
2	Vilanova Geltru	4	2	2	0	7	5	8
3	FE Grama	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
4	CE L'Hospitalet	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
4	UE Cornella	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
6	Badalona	4	2	0	2	7	3	6
7	Pobla Mafumet	4	2	0	2	7	6	6
8	FC L'Escala	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
9	UE San Juan Montcada	4	2	0	2	5	7	6
10	CE Europa B	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
11	FC Martinenc	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
12	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
13	Peralada	4	1	2	1	5	3	5
14	Atletic Lleida	4	1	1	2	3	7	4
15	CP San Cristobal	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	CFJ Mollerussa	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
17	UE Tona	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
18	UE Vilassar de Mar	4	1	0	3	2	7	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UE Tona	Badalona
UE Vilassar de Mar	1-3 L	2-0 W
CP San Cristobal	2-2 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Badalona (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UE Tona

DLDDLWLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	1-2	5	11	L
19/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-3	–	–	L
13/09	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
09/05	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/05	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-3	–	–	L
26/04	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/04	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/04	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Badalona

DLLLWWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	4-0	4-0	4	8	W
20/09	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/09	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
05/09	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/05	UE Vic Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
03/05	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	3-2	–	–	W
26/04	CE Manresa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	1-4	5	3	L
19/04	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
12/04	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
04/04	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UE Tona vs Badalona?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Badalona win (48%). Probabilities: UE Tona 23%, draw 28%, Badalona 48%.

How many goals are expected in UE Tona vs Badalona?

The model expects 2.3 goals (UE Tona 0.89 · Badalona 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UE Tona vs Badalona?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.