Football · Tunisia League 2 · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: ES Bouchamma vs CS Korba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

ES Bouchamma1.17

CS Korba1.03

1X2

38% 31% 31%

ES Bouchamma Draw CS Korba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

ES Bouchamma 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWLWWD

CS Korba 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

ES Bouchamma 0–2–0 CS Korba (2 last)

ES Bouchamma1-1CS Korba
CS Korba0-0ES Bouchamma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ES Bouchamma 1508 · CS Korba 1532

	ES Bouchamma	Draw	CS Korba
Our model	38%	32%	31%
Market	38%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ES Bouchamma	CS Korba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 1.5	3.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.90

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.73

2 (0)2.08

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +48’	2.35	2.90	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ES Bouchamma 0–2–0 CS Korba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Tunisia League 2	ES Bouchamma	1-1	CS Korba
14/12/25 Tunisia League 2	CS Korba	0-0 HT 0-0	ES Bouchamma

Standings · Tunisia League 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Ariana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AS Kasserine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Olympique Medenine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Korba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Redeyef	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	EGS Gafsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ES Bouchamma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jendouba Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JS Kairouanaise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kalaa Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olympique Du Kef	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moknine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Gabesien	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Ksour Essef	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ES Bouchamma	CS Korba
EO Sidi Bouzid	2-0 W	5-1 W
AS Ariana	5-0 W	1-0 W
Jendouba Sport	1-2 L	2-1 W
US Ksour Essef	4-1 W	0-0 D
AS Djelma	1-1 D	1-0 W
Progres Sakiet Eddaier	1-4 L	0-4 L
AS Kasserine	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ES Bouchamma (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ES Bouchamma

WLDLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/05	CS Korba Tunisia League 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
02/05	EO Sidi Bouzid Tunisia League 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
28/04	AS Ariana Tunisia League 2	–	5-0	–	–	W
22/04	Jendouba Sport Tunisia League 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/04	US Ksour Essef Tunisia League 2	–	4-1	–	–	W
04/04	CS Redeyef Tunisia League 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/03	Stade Gabesien Tunisia League 2	0-2	1-2	1	5	L
27/02	AS Djelma Tunisia League 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/02	Progres Sakiet Eddaier Tunisia League 2	0-1	1-4	2	4	L
15/02	AS Kasserine Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

CS Korba

WDLWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/05	ES Bouchamma Tunisia League 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
02/05	AS Djelma Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/04	EO Sidi Bouzid Tunisia League 2	–	5-1	–	–	W
22/04	Progres Sakiet Eddaier Tunisia League 2	–	0-4	–	–	L
11/04	AS Ariana Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/04	AS Kasserine Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/03	Jendouba Sport Tunisia League 2	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
27/02	Kalaa Sport Tunisia League 2	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/02	US Ksour Essef Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
14/02	Moknine Tunisia League 2	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ES Bouchamma vs CS Korba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ES Bouchamma win (38%). Probabilities: ES Bouchamma 38%, draw 31%, CS Korba 31%.

How many goals are expected in ES Bouchamma vs CS Korba?

The model expects 2.2 goals (ES Bouchamma 1.17 · CS Korba 1.03), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in ES Bouchamma vs CS Korba?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.