Football · Tunisia League 2 · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: EGS Gafsa vs AS Kasserine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

EGS Gafsa1.18

AS Kasserine1.02

1X2

39% 31% 31%

EGS Gafsa Draw AS Kasserine

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

EGS Gafsa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLWDW

AS Kasserine 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDLWL

Head-to-head

EGS Gafsa 3–3 AS Kasserine (6 last)

EGS Gafsa0-1AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine2-1EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa2-1AS Kasserine
AS Kasserine1-3EGS Gafsa
AS Kasserine2-1EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa2-0AS Kasserine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EGS Gafsa 1485 · AS Kasserine 1530

	EGS Gafsa	Draw	AS Kasserine
Our model	38%	32%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AS Kasserine (rating 1485 vs 1530).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EGS Gafsa	AS Kasserine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/25/75%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 1.8	0 / 1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	1 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +21’	2.30	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EGS Gafsa 3–0–3 AS Kasserine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Tunisia League 2	EGS Gafsa	0-1	AS Kasserine
19/10/25 Tunisia League 2	AS Kasserine	2-1	EGS Gafsa
16/02/20 Tunisia League 2	EGS Gafsa	2-1	AS Kasserine
28/09/19 Tunisia League 2	AS Kasserine	1-3	EGS Gafsa
02/03/19 Tunisia League 2	AS Kasserine	2-1	EGS Gafsa
04/11/18 Tunisia League 2	EGS Gafsa	2-0	AS Kasserine

Standings · Tunisia League 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Ariana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AS Kasserine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Olympique Medenine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Korba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Redeyef	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	EGS Gafsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ES Bouchamma	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jendouba Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JS Kairouanaise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kalaa Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olympique Du Kef	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moknine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Gabesien	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Ksour Essef	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EGS Gafsa	AS Kasserine
US Ksour Essef	2-4 L	1-0 W
CS Redeyef	0-0 D	0-1 L
Stade Gabesien	1-2 L	1-1 D
AS Djelma	2-1 W	0-1 L
Progres Sakiet Eddaier	0-3 L	2-1 W
Kalaa Sport	1-4 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AS Kasserine (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EGS Gafsa

LLLWLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/05	EO Sidi Bouzid Tunisia League 2	–	5-2	–	–	W
02/05	AS Ariana Tunisia League 2	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
28/04	Jendouba Sport Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	US Ksour Essef Tunisia League 2	1-1	2-4	1	2	L
11/04	CS Redeyef Tunisia League 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/04	Stade Gabesien Tunisia League 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/03	AS Djelma Tunisia League 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/02	Progres Sakiet Eddaier Tunisia League 2	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
21/02	AS Kasserine Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/02	Kalaa Sport Tunisia League 2	0-1	1-4	2	5	L

AS Kasserine

WDWWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/05	CS Hammam Lif Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
12/05	US Ksour Essef Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	CS Redeyef Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/04	Stade Gabesien Tunisia League 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	AS Djelma Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/04	Progres Sakiet Eddaier Tunisia League 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/04	CS Korba Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/03	Kalaa Sport Tunisia League 2	–	4-0	–	–	W
27/02	Moknine Tunisia League 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/02	EGS Gafsa Tunisia League 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EGS Gafsa vs AS Kasserine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EGS Gafsa win (39%). Probabilities: EGS Gafsa 39%, draw 31%, AS Kasserine 31%.

How many goals are expected in EGS Gafsa vs AS Kasserine?

The model expects 2.2 goals (EGS Gafsa 1.18 · AS Kasserine 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in EGS Gafsa vs AS Kasserine?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.