Football · Tunisia League 2 · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: OC Kerkennah vs CS Msaken

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

OC Kerkennah1.32

CS Msaken0.79

1X2

48% 30% 22%

OC Kerkennah Draw CS Msaken

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

OC Kerkennah 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDWWDW

CS Msaken 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLDLLL

Head-to-head

OC Kerkennah 1–1–0 CS Msaken (2 last)

CS Msaken0-1OC Kerkennah
OC Kerkennah1-1CS Msaken

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OC Kerkennah 1543 · CS Msaken 1458

	OC Kerkennah	Draw	CS Msaken
Our model	48%	31%	21%
Market	48%	30%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours OC Kerkennah (rating 1543 vs 1458).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OC Kerkennah	CS Msaken
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +13’	1.85	3.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · OC Kerkennah 1–1–0 CS Msaken

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/02/26 Tunisia League 2	CS Msaken	0-1 HT 0-0	OC Kerkennah
11/10/25 Tunisia League 2	OC Kerkennah	1-1 HT 0-1	CS Msaken

Standings · Tunisia League 2 · Ligue 2 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Agareb	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AS Gabes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AS Megrine	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AS Soliman	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BS Bouhajla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Chebba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Msaken	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	EM Mahdia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ES Beni-Khalled	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OC Kerkennah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sfax Railways	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Ben Arous	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Soussienf	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tataouine	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OC Kerkennah	CS Msaken
EM Mahdia	3-1 W	2-0 W
CS Hammam Lif	0-0 D	0-3 L
ES Hammam Sousse	2-1 W	0-0 D
CS Chebba	2-1 W	2-4 L
AS Agareb	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sfax Railways	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: OC Kerkennah (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OC Kerkennah

WLLWDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/05	EM Mahdia Tunisia League 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
01/05	CS Hammam Lif Tunisia League 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/04	ES Hammam Sousse Tunisia League 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	SA Menzel Bourguiba Tunisia League 2	–	4-0	–	–	W
13/04	Tataouine Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/04	AS Megrine Tunisia League 2	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
29/03	CS Chebba Tunisia League 2	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
28/02	AS Agareb Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/02	Sfax Railways Tunisia League 2	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
16/02	CS Msaken Tunisia League 2	0-0	1-0	4	1	W

CS Msaken

LLWWDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/05	CS Chebba Tunisia League 2	1-2	2-4	3	4	L
01/05	AS Agareb Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/04	Sfax Railways Tunisia League 2	0-2	1-3	10	6	L
22/04	ES Hammam Sousse Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
13/04	US Bousalem Tunisia League 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/04	BS Bouhajla Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
28/03	SC Ben Arous Tunisia League 2	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
27/02	EM Mahdia Tunisia League 2	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/02	CS Hammam Lif Tunisia League 2	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
16/02	OC Kerkennah Tunisia League 2	0-0	0-1	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OC Kerkennah vs CS Msaken?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OC Kerkennah win (48%). Probabilities: OC Kerkennah 48%, draw 30%, CS Msaken 22%.

How many goals are expected in OC Kerkennah vs CS Msaken?

The model expects 2.11 goals (OC Kerkennah 1.32 · CS Msaken 0.79), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in OC Kerkennah vs CS Msaken?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.