Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 11/10, 13:30
Prediction: Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth
Team pages: Hertha Berlin · Greuther Furth
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.69Total
Hertha Berlin2.37
Greuther Furth1.32
1X2
Hertha Berlin
Draw
Greuther Furth
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Hertha Berlin
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Greuther Furth
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hertha Berlin
4–1–1
Greuther Furth
(6 last)
- Hertha Berlin2-1Greuther Furth
- Greuther Furth3-3Hertha Berlin
- Hertha Berlin1-0Greuther Furth
- Greuther Furth2-1Hertha Berlin
- Greuther Furth1-2Hertha Berlin
- Hertha Berlin5-0Greuther Furth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hertha Berlin 1584 · Greuther Furth 1454
| Hertha Berlin | Draw | Greuther Furth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hertha Berlin (rating 1584 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Hertha Berlin: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hertha Berlin | Greuther Furth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.2 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hertha Berlin 4–1–1 Greuther Furth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Germany Bundesliga II | Hertha Berlin | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Greuther Furth |
| 12/12/25 Germany Bundesliga II | Greuther Furth | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Hertha Berlin |
| 04/05/25 Germany Bundesliga II | Hertha Berlin | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Greuther Furth |
| 07/12/24 Germany Bundesliga II | Greuther Furth | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 11/02/24 Germany Bundesliga II | Greuther Furth | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 26/08/23 Germany Bundesliga II | Hertha Berlin | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Greuther Furth |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga II
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 11 |
| 5 | Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 8 |
| 8 | St Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabruck | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Greuther Furth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
| 18 | Darmstadt | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hertha Berlin | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Heidenheim | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Bochum | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Hertha Berlin (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hertha Berlin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II |
2-2 | 5-3 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Bochum Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Greuther Furth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Bochum Germany Bundesliga II |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-2 | 18 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Bochum Germany Bundesliga II |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hertha Berlin win (59%). Probabilities: Hertha Berlin 59%, draw 22%, Greuther Furth 19%.
How many goals are expected in Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth?
The model expects 3.69 goals (Hertha Berlin 2.37 · Greuther Furth 1.32), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.