Football · Switzerland Super League · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: Lugano vs Lucerne

Team pages: Lugano · Lucerne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Lugano2.38

Lucerne1.41

1X2

58% 21% 21%

Lugano Draw Lucerne

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugano 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWW

Lucerne 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWDLW

Head-to-head

Lugano 5–1 Lucerne (6 last)

Lugano1-3Lucerne
Lucerne2-5Lugano
Lugano2-0Lucerne
Lucerne0-2Lugano
Lugano2-0Lucerne
Lucerne1-4Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugano 1616 · Lucerne 1519

	Lugano	Draw	Lucerne
Our model	58%	21%	21%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugano (rating 1616 vs 1519).
H2H favours Lugano: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugano	Lucerne
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 0.7	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.33

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.64
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.48 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +8’	1.60	4.33	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +542’	1.64	4.48	4.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano 5–0–1 Lucerne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	1-3 HT 0-1	Lucerne
17/01/26 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	2-5 HT 1-3	Lugano
30/10/25 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	2-0 HT 0-0	Lucerne
04/05/25 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	0-2 HT 0-1	Lugano
15/02/25 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	2-0 HT 0-0	Lucerne
07/12/24 Switzerland Super League	Lucerne	1-4 HT 0-2	Lugano

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	9	8	1	0	27	7	25
2	Young Boys	9	5	4	0	31	18	19
3	FC Sion	9	6	1	2	23	14	19
4	Basel	9	4	1	4	17	17	13
5	St Gallen	9	4	1	4	16	19	13
6	Lucerne	9	3	3	3	17	18	12
7	FC Zurich	9	3	2	4	14	20	11
8	Servette	9	3	1	5	11	13	10
9	FC Thun	9	3	1	5	15	23	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	2	2	5	13	24	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	2	0	7	18	21	6
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	9	1	3	5	7	15	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugano	Lucerne
FC Lausanne-Sport	4-0 W	1-0 W
St Gallen	4-1 W	2-2 D
Young Boys	2-2 D	3-3 D
Basel	3-1 W	2-4 L
Servette	1-0 W	1-1 D
FC Sion	2-1 W	0-3 L
Grasshoppers	4-1 W	5-1 W
FC Vaduz	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lugano (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugano

WWWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
16/09	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	4-0	4-1	2	7	W
12/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
06/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-0	3-1	7	6	W
03/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
30/08	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
09/08	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
02/08	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	4-1	4	2	W
26/07	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
17/05	Basel Switzerland Super League	2-0	4-0	5	4	W

Lucerne

WLLDWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	2-0	5-1	5	4	W
13/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	6	3	L
05/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-3	2	8	D
02/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-1	3	9	W
29/08	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
22/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
09/08	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-2	9	8	D
02/08	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
25/07	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-3	12	4	L
16/05	Winterthur Switzerland Super League	1-0	3-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugano vs Lucerne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugano win (58%). Probabilities: Lugano 58%, draw 21%, Lucerne 21%.

How many goals are expected in Lugano vs Lucerne?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Lugano 2.38 · Lucerne 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugano vs Lucerne?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.