Football · Switzerland Super League · 11/10, 16:30

Prediction: St Gallen vs FC Lausanne-Sport

Team pages: St Gallen · FC Lausanne-Sport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

St Gallen2.05

FC Lausanne-Sport1.02

1X2

60% 23% 17%

St Gallen Draw FC Lausanne-Sport

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

St Gallen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWLLW

FC Lausanne-Sport 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLDLLL

Head-to-head

St Gallen 4–1–1 FC Lausanne-Sport (6 last)

FC Lausanne-Sport1-1St Gallen
St Gallen1-0FC Lausanne-Sport
FC Lausanne-Sport1-2St Gallen
St Gallen0-2FC Lausanne-Sport
St Gallen3-2FC Lausanne-Sport
FC Lausanne-Sport3-4St Gallen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Gallen 1508 · FC Lausanne-Sport 1435

	St Gallen	Draw	FC Lausanne-Sport
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Gallen (rating 1508 vs 1435).
H2H favours St Gallen: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Gallen	FC Lausanne-Sport
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 7.1	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.83 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +24’	1.53	4.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +505’	1.53	4.83	5.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Gallen 4–1–1 FC Lausanne-Sport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Switzerland Super League	FC Lausanne-Sport	1-1 HT 1-1	St Gallen
23/11/25 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Lausanne-Sport
31/08/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Lausanne-Sport	1-2 HT 0-0	St Gallen
15/03/25 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	0-2 HT 0-2	FC Lausanne-Sport
26/01/25 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Lausanne-Sport
04/08/24 Switzerland Super League	FC Lausanne-Sport	3-4 HT 1-2	St Gallen

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	9	8	1	0	27	7	25
2	Young Boys	9	5	4	0	31	18	19
3	FC Sion	9	6	1	2	23	14	19
4	Basel	9	4	1	4	17	17	13
5	St Gallen	9	4	1	4	16	19	13
6	Lucerne	9	3	3	3	17	18	12
7	FC Zurich	9	3	2	4	14	20	11
8	Servette	9	3	1	5	11	13	10
9	FC Thun	9	3	1	5	15	23	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	2	2	5	13	24	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	2	0	7	18	21	6
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	9	1	3	5	7	15	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Gallen	FC Lausanne-Sport
Basel	3-1 W	1-0 W
Lugano	1-4 L	0-4 L
Servette	2-0 W	0-1 L
Grasshoppers	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Thun	3-4 L	0-0 D
Lucerne	2-2 D	0-1 L
FC Vaduz	3-2 W	1-3 L
FC Zurich	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: St Gallen (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Gallen

DWWDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
16/09	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-4	1-4	8	7	L
12/09	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	0-2	0-3	10	3	L
06/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
30/08	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-4	6	4	L
09/08	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-2	6	8	D
02/08	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
26/07	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
17/05	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

FC Lausanne-Sport

LDWDLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-4	1	7	L
13/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
05/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
02/09	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
22/08	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
08/08	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
01/08	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
25/07	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
16/05	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-2	1-3	7	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Gallen vs FC Lausanne-Sport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Gallen win (60%). Probabilities: St Gallen 60%, draw 23%, FC Lausanne-Sport 17%.

How many goals are expected in St Gallen vs FC Lausanne-Sport?

The model expects 3.07 goals (St Gallen 2.05 · FC Lausanne-Sport 1.02), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in St Gallen vs FC Lausanne-Sport?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.