Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 03/10, 03:00

Prediction: Rancho Santana FC vs Managua FC

Team pages: Rancho Santana FC · Managua FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Rancho Santana FC0.94

Managua FC2.13

1X2

15% 21% 64%

Rancho Santana FC Draw Managua FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Rancho Santana FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWDD

Managua FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Rancho Santana FC 0–1–5 Managua FC (6 last)

Managua FC2-1Rancho Santana FC
Managua FC2-0Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC2-3Managua FC
Managua FC1-0Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC1-1Managua FC
Rancho Santana FC0-5Managua FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rancho Santana FC 1415 · Managua FC 1623

	Rancho Santana FC	Draw	Managua FC
Our model	15%	22%	64%
Market	15%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1415 vs 1623).
H2H favours Managua FC: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rancho Santana FC	Managua FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	2.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 5.3	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	6.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.33

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 7.41
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.43 ★
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:17 +16’	6.00	4.33	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +6’	7.21	4.91	1.31
13:00 +9’	7.41▲	5.43▲	1.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rancho Santana FC 0–1–5 Managua FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Rancho Santana FC
12/07/26 Nicaragua Cup	Managua FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Rancho Santana FC
06/07/26 Nicaragua Cup	Rancho Santana FC	2-3 HT 0-0	Managua FC
06/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Rancho Santana FC
01/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Managua FC
20/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	0-5 HT 0-3	Managua FC

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	9	7	2	0	27	9	23
2	Diriangen	9	6	3	0	18	7	21
3	Real Esteli	9	5	3	1	17	6	18
4	UNAN Managua	9	5	2	2	11	7	17
5	San Marcos FC	9	3	2	4	9	12	11
6	HYH Export Sebaco FC	9	3	2	4	9	17	11
7	Matagalpa FC	9	3	0	6	4	16	9
8	CD Walter Ferretti	9	2	1	6	12	16	7
9	Rancho Santana FC	9	1	2	6	7	14	5
10	Jalapa	9	1	1	7	4	14	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rancho Santana FC	Managua FC
Real Esteli	1-1 D	1-1 D
Jalapa	1-1 D	3-0 W
Matagalpa FC	1-0 W	3-0 W
San Marcos FC	1-2 L	4-1 W
CD Walter Ferretti	1-3 L	3-2 W
Diriangen	1-2 L	3-3 D
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-1 L	6-1 W
UNAN Managua	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rancho Santana FC

WLLLLLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
03/09	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
30/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
16/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
09/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
02/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
19/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
17/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	1	W

Managua FC

LWWWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
07/09	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-2	3-2	5	7	W
04/09	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	2-2	3-3	8	9	D
31/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
23/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	5-0	6-1	1	4	W
10/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
01/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	7	8	W
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
21/12	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	4	12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rancho Santana FC vs Managua FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Managua FC win (64%). Probabilities: Rancho Santana FC 15%, draw 21%, Managua FC 64%.

How many goals are expected in Rancho Santana FC vs Managua FC?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Rancho Santana FC 0.94 · Managua FC 2.13), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rancho Santana FC vs Managua FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.