Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 03/10, 12:30

Prediction: Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic

Team pages: Mindil Aces · Darwin Olympic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.13Total

Mindil Aces2.15

Darwin Olympic1.97

1X2

43% 22% 36%

Mindil Aces Draw Darwin Olympic

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Mindil Aces 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWLW

Darwin Olympic 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Mindil Aces 0–4–2 Darwin Olympic (6 last)

Darwin Olympic5-2Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces0-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic1-1Mindil Aces
Darwin Olympic2-2Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces0-0Darwin Olympic
Mindil Aces1-1Darwin Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mindil Aces 1578 · Darwin Olympic 1604

	Mindil Aces	Draw	Darwin Olympic
Our model	43%	22%	36%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Darwin Olympic: 2-4-0.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mindil Aces	Darwin Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	3.9 / 1.7	2.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 8.1	3.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:09 +3’	2.10	4.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mindil Aces 0–4–2 Darwin Olympic

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	5-2 HT 3-2	Mindil Aces
18/08/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-2 HT 0-1	Darwin Olympic
09/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	1-1 HT 0-1	Mindil Aces
08/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
30/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-0 HT 0-0	Darwin Olympic
20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 1-0	Darwin Olympic

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	24	21	2	1	105	22	65
2	Mindil Aces	24	16	2	6	85	29	50
3	Darwin Olympic	24	14	4	6	74	41	46
4	Port Darwin FC	24	13	1	10	75	68	40
5	Darwin Hearts	24	10	3	11	59	61	33
6	Hellenic AC	24	7	4	13	39	59	25
7	Casuarina FC	24	6	4	14	47	65	22
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	24	6	2	16	43	101	20
9	Garuda FC	24	2	4	18	27	108	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mindil Aces	Darwin Olympic
University Azzurri FC	4-2 W	1-0 W
Casuarina FC	4-2 W	2-2 D
Port Darwin FC	4-2 W	2-1 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	5-0 W	5-2 W
Darwin Hearts	4-2 W	3-1 W
Garuda FC	11-0 W	2-0 W
Hellenic AC	4-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mindil Aces

WWWLWDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	4-2	8	8	W
12/09	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-3	2-5	5	2	L
06/09	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	4-2	7	2	W
30/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	10	3	W
27/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
22/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-0	12	0	W
18/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
14/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-2	9	1	W
01/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	11-0	10	0	W
26/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	4-1	5	0	W

Darwin Olympic

DLWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
19/09	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	0	W
12/09	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	3-2	5-2	11	2	W
05/09	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	5-2	7	1	W
29/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
21/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
18/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mindil Aces win (43%). Probabilities: Mindil Aces 43%, draw 22%, Darwin Olympic 36%.

How many goals are expected in Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic?

The model expects 4.13 goals (Mindil Aces 2.15 · Darwin Olympic 1.97), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.