Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 20/09, 13:00

Prediction: Varnsdorf vs FK Jablonec B

Team pages: Varnsdorf · FK Jablonec B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Varnsdorf2.08

FK Jablonec B1.52

1X2

50% 23% 27%

Varnsdorf Draw FK Jablonec B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Varnsdorf 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLWWD

FK Jablonec B 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDWDWD

Head-to-head

Varnsdorf 2–1–1 FK Jablonec B (4 last)

FK Jablonec B3-3Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf1-2FK Jablonec B
Varnsdorf6-0FK Jablonec B
FK Jablonec B2-3Varnsdorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varnsdorf 1515 · FK Jablonec B 1541

	Varnsdorf	Draw	FK Jablonec B
Our model	50%	23%	27%
Market	50%	23%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Varnsdorf: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varnsdorf	FK Jablonec B
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	2.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.90

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:55 +17’	1.80	3.90	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varnsdorf 2–1–1 FK Jablonec B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Czechia 3. Liga	FK Jablonec B	3-3 HT 2-1	Varnsdorf
19/10/25 Czechia 3. Liga	Varnsdorf	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Jablonec B
08/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Varnsdorf	6-0 HT 2-0	FK Jablonec B
08/02/20 Europe Friendlies	FK Jablonec B	2-3 HT 1-1	Varnsdorf

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Artis Brno B	8	7	1	0	17	1	22
2	FC Brno II	8	6	1	1	22	14	19
3	Frydek Mistek	9	5	3	1	15	7	18
4	Sigma Olomouc B	9	5	1	3	17	10	16
5	TJ Unie Hlubina	9	4	3	2	23	15	15
6	Slovacko II	9	4	3	2	16	10	15
7	SK Unicov	8	4	2	2	13	10	14
8	SK Hranice	9	4	1	4	11	8	13
9	MFK Vitkovice	8	3	3	2	8	7	12
10	FC Trinity Zlin B	9	3	3	3	12	13	12
11	CSK Uhersky Brod	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
12	SFK Vrchovina	9	3	2	4	8	14	11
13	MFK Karvina B	8	3	1	4	10	13	10
14	FC Vsetin	9	2	1	6	10	22	7
15	FK Hodonin	8	1	2	5	7	12	5
16	FK Blansko	8	0	4	4	9	21	4
17	MFK Havirov	9	0	4	5	4	16	4
18	Polanka	9	0	3	6	5	14	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varnsdorf	FK Jablonec B
SK Sokol Zapy	4-4 D	1-1 D
Velke Hamry	3-1 W	6-0 W
FK Neratovice-Byskovice	2-1 W	1-1 D
Mladá Boleslav B	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Varnsdorf (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varnsdorf

DWWLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	4-4	3	2	D
06/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
29/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
09/08	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
07/06	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	4-0	5-0	4	1	W
30/05	Arsenal Ceska Lipa Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
24/05	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/05	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
17/05	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	3-3	6	4	D

FK Jablonec B

DLDLWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
06/09	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	6-0	–	–	W
15/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
06/06	Pardubice B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
31/05	Usti N Orlici Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
28/05	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
24/05	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varnsdorf vs FK Jablonec B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varnsdorf win (50%). Probabilities: Varnsdorf 50%, draw 23%, FK Jablonec B 27%.

How many goals are expected in Varnsdorf vs FK Jablonec B?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Varnsdorf 2.08 · FK Jablonec B 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Varnsdorf vs FK Jablonec B?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.