Football · Morocco GNF 2 · 27/09, 18:00

Prediction: USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda

Team pages: USM Oujda · Mouloudia Oujda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

USM Oujda1.22

Mouloudia Oujda0.88

1X2

43% 32% 26%

USM Oujda Draw Mouloudia Oujda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

USM Oujda 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWLDW

Mouloudia Oujda 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLDDD

Head-to-head

USM Oujda 0–2–2 Mouloudia Oujda (4 last)

Mouloudia Oujda2-1USM Oujda
USM Oujda0-3Mouloudia Oujda
USM Oujda0-0Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda0-0USM Oujda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USM Oujda 1490 · Mouloudia Oujda 1479

	USM Oujda	Draw	Mouloudia Oujda
Our model	42%	32%	25%
Market	43%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mouloudia Oujda: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USM Oujda	Mouloudia Oujda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	0/38/63%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:29 +5’	2.10	2.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USM Oujda 0–2–2 Mouloudia Oujda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Morocco GNF 2	Mouloudia Oujda	2-1 HT 0-1	USM Oujda
06/12/25 Morocco GNF 2	USM Oujda	0-3 HT 0-2	Mouloudia Oujda
03/05/25 Morocco GNF 2	USM Oujda	0-0 HT 0-0	Mouloudia Oujda
28/12/24 Morocco GNF 2	Mouloudia Oujda	0-0 HT 0-0	USM Oujda

Standings · Morocco GNF 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chabab Atlas Khénifra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Chabab Mohammedia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ittihad Khemisset	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JS Soualem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JS Massira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KAC Kenitra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mouloudia Oujda	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OC Safi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olympique Khouribga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olympique Dcheira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Sportive Boujaad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Marocain Du Rabat	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	USM Oujda	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Yacoub El Mansour	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WAF Widad Fes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USM Oujda	Mouloudia Oujda
Widad Temara	1-0 W	0-1 L
Chabab Atlas Khénifra	1-1 D	0-4 L
JS Soualem	0-2 L	1-1 D
WAF Widad Fes	1-0 W	1-1 D
Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: USM Oujda (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USM Oujda

DLWLWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Widad Temara Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
27/06	Chabab Atlas Khénifra Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
20/06	JS Soualem Morocco GNF 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/06	Union Sportive Boujaad Morocco GNF 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/06	Mouloudia Oujda Morocco GNF 2	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
24/05	Racing de Casablanca Morocco GNF 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	MAT Tetouan Morocco GNF 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
02/05	WAF Widad Fes Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
26/04	Stade Marocain Du Rabat Morocco GNF 2	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
05/04	Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir Morocco GNF 2	–	1-1	–	–	D

Mouloudia Oujda

DLLDLWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	WAF Widad Fes Morocco GNF 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/06	US Amal Tiznit Morocco GNF 2	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
20/06	Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir Morocco GNF 2	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
14/06	KAC Kenitra Morocco GNF 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/06	USM Oujda Morocco GNF 2	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
23/05	Raja Beni Mellal Morocco GNF 2	1-2	2-3	2	8	L
10/05	SC Chabab Mohammedia Morocco GNF 2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
02/05	Chabab Atlas Khénifra Morocco GNF 2	0-1	0-4	3	7	L
25/04	Widad Temara Morocco GNF 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
04/04	JS Soualem Morocco GNF 2	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USM Oujda win (43%). Probabilities: USM Oujda 43%, draw 32%, Mouloudia Oujda 26%.

How many goals are expected in USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda?

The model expects 2.1 goals (USM Oujda 1.22 · Mouloudia Oujda 0.88), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in USM Oujda vs Mouloudia Oujda?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.