Football · Morocco GNF 2 · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: SC Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda

Team pages: SC Chabab Mohammedia · USM Oujda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

SC Chabab Mohammedia1.11

USM Oujda0.86

1X2

40% 33% 27%

SC Chabab Mohammedia Draw USM Oujda

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Chabab Mohammedia 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDLLWL

USM Oujda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLDWW

Head-to-head

SC Chabab Mohammedia 1–1–1 USM Oujda (3 last)

SC Chabab Mohammedia1-0USM Oujda
USM Oujda1-1SC Chabab Mohammedia
USM Oujda1-0SC Chabab Mohammedia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Chabab Mohammedia 1446 · USM Oujda 1503

	SC Chabab Mohammedia	Draw	USM Oujda
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	41%	32%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours USM Oujda (rating 1446 vs 1503).
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Chabab Mohammedia	USM Oujda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	43/57/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:20 +10’	2.20	2.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Chabab Mohammedia 1–1–1 USM Oujda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Morocco GNF 2	SC Chabab Mohammedia	1-0 HT 0-0	USM Oujda
05/10/25 Morocco GNF 2	USM Oujda	1-1 HT 0-1	SC Chabab Mohammedia
13/10/24 Morocco Coupe d’Excellence	USM Oujda	1-0 HT 1-0	SC Chabab Mohammedia

Standings · Morocco GNF 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Jeunesse Ben Guerir	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
1	US Yacoub El Mansour	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Ittihad Khemisset	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	JS Massira	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	USM Oujda	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Olympique Dcheira	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	WAF Widad Fes	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	OC Safi	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	Union Sportive Boujaad	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Chabab Atlas Khénifra	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	Mouloudia Oujda	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	Stade Marocain Du Rabat	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	KAC Kenitra	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
13	Olympique Khouribga	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	SC Chabab Mohammedia	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	JS Soualem	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Chabab Mohammedia	USM Oujda
Stade Marocain Du Rabat	0-1 L	0-1 L
Widad Temara	1-1 D	1-0 W
Chabab Atlas Khénifra	0-1 L	1-1 D
JS Soualem	2-2 D	0-2 L
Mouloudia Oujda	0-0 D	2-1 W
Union Sportive Boujaad	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: USM Oujda (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Chabab Mohammedia

DLDDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	US Yacoub El Mansour Morocco GNF 2	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
05/07	KAC Kenitra Morocco GNF 2	3-0	4-3	5	12	W
27/06	Raja Beni Mellal Morocco GNF 2	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
20/06	Stade Marocain Du Rabat Morocco GNF 2	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
14/06	Widad Temara Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-1	0	8	D
07/06	Chabab Atlas Khénifra Morocco GNF 2	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
23/05	JS Soualem Morocco GNF 2	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
10/05	Mouloudia Oujda Morocco GNF 2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
02/05	JS Massira Morocco GNF 2	1-0	1-3	4	7	L
25/04	Union Sportive Boujaad Morocco GNF 2	–	0-0	–	–	D

USM Oujda

LWLWLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Mouloudia Oujda Morocco GNF 2	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
05/07	Widad Temara Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
27/06	Chabab Atlas Khénifra Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
20/06	JS Soualem Morocco GNF 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/06	Union Sportive Boujaad Morocco GNF 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/06	Mouloudia Oujda Morocco GNF 2	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
24/05	Racing de Casablanca Morocco GNF 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	MAT Tetouan Morocco GNF 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
02/05	WAF Widad Fes Morocco GNF 2	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
26/04	Stade Marocain Du Rabat Morocco GNF 2	0-0	0-1	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Chabab Mohammedia win (40%). Probabilities: SC Chabab Mohammedia 40%, draw 33%, USM Oujda 27%.

How many goals are expected in SC Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda?

The model expects 1.97 goals (SC Chabab Mohammedia 1.11 · USM Oujda 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Chabab Mohammedia vs USM Oujda?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.