Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: Valadares Gaia FC (W) vs Rio Ave (W)

Team pages: Valadares Gaia FC (W) · Rio Ave (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.87Total

Valadares Gaia FC (W)1.06

Rio Ave (W)0.82

1X2

40% 32% 28%

Valadares Gaia FC (W) Draw Rio Ave (W)

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Valadares Gaia FC (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLLWLL

Rio Ave (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Valadares Gaia FC (W) 2–1 Rio Ave (W) (3 last)

Valadares Gaia FC (W)0-1Rio Ave (W)
Rio Ave (W)0-2Valadares Gaia FC (W)
Valadares Gaia FC (W)2-1Rio Ave (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valadares Gaia FC (W) 1453 · Rio Ave (W) 1475

	Valadares Gaia FC (W)	Draw	Rio Ave (W)
Our model	39%	34%	26%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valadares Gaia FC (W): 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valadares Gaia FC (W)	Rio Ave (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.23
X	3.25 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.17 ★
2	4.50 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +12’	1.70	3.25	4.50
14:59 +14’	1.95▲	3.10▼	3.60▼
17:27 +15’	2.15▲	3.00▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +30’	2.23	3.17	2.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valadares Gaia FC (W) 2–0–1 Rio Ave (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	Valadares Gaia FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Rio Ave (W)
20/12/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	Rio Ave (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Valadares Gaia FC (W)
23/03/25 Portugal Cup Women	Valadares Gaia FC (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	Rio Ave (W)

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting (W)	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
2	Torreense (W)	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
3	Benfica (W)	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
4	Braga (W)	2	1	1	0	6	1	4
5	FC Porto (W)	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	Racing Power (W)	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
7	Valadares Gaia FC (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
8	Rio Ave (W)	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
8	Guimaraes (W)	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
10	Maritimo (W)	2	0	0	2	0	10	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valadares Gaia FC (W)	Rio Ave (W)
Racing Power (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
SF Damaiense (W)	1-3 L	2-0 W
Guimaraes (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Benfica (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
Sporting (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Braga (W)	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rio Ave (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valadares Gaia FC (W)

DLDWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
12/09	FC Porto (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
10/05	Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
02/05	Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/04	SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
03/04	Guimaraes (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	1-1	11	4	D
21/03	Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
14/03	Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
22/02	Sporting (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
08/02	Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Rio Ave (W)

WLDDWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
13/09	Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-2	0-3	3	0	L
10/05	Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
02/05	Valadares Gaia FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/04	Sporting (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-0	1-2	5	0	L
05/04	SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
22/03	Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
13/03	Guimaraes (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
21/02	Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
08/02	Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valadares Gaia FC (W) vs Rio Ave (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valadares Gaia FC (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Valadares Gaia FC (W) 40%, draw 32%, Rio Ave (W) 28%.

How many goals are expected in Valadares Gaia FC (W) vs Rio Ave (W)?

The model expects 1.87 goals (Valadares Gaia FC (W) 1.06 · Rio Ave (W) 0.82), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valadares Gaia FC (W) vs Rio Ave (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.