Football · Peru Liga 2 · 31/10, 21:15

Prediction: Alianza Universidad vs CD Universidad San Martin

Team pages: Alianza Universidad · CD Universidad San Martin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Alianza Universidad1.41

CD Universidad San Martin1.27

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Alianza Universidad Draw CD Universidad San Martin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Universidad 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDLLDL

CD Universidad San Martin 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Alianza Universidad 3–2–1 CD Universidad San Martin (6 last)

CD Universidad San Martin2-1Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad3-1CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin2-3Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad2-2CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin0-2Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad1-1CD Universidad San Martin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Universidad 1466 · CD Universidad San Martin 1510

	Alianza Universidad	Draw	CD Universidad San Martin
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	38%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Universidad San Martin (rating 1466 vs 1510).
H2H favours Alianza Universidad: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Universidad	CD Universidad San Martin
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.73

2 (0)2.08

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
X	3.00 → 3.60▲	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	2.88 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.85

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +7’	2.38	3.00	2.88
22:35 +5’	3.40▲	3.10▲	2.05▼
04:35 +17’	4.00▲	3.20▲	1.85▼
10:03 +22’	3.30▼	3.10▼	2.10▲
13:08 +9’	4.20▲	3.60▲	1.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:00 +25’	2.52	3.77	2.16
13:09 +8’	3.01▲	3.79▲	1.88▼
17:18 +3’	3.01	4.07▲	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Universidad 3–2–1 CD Universidad San Martin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/26 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	2-1 HT 2-0	Alianza Universidad
15/10/23 Peru Liga 2	Alianza Universidad	3-1 HT 1-0	CD Universidad San Martin
10/10/23 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	2-3 HT 2-0	Alianza Universidad
18/07/23 Peru Liga 2	Alianza Universidad	2-2 HT 0-1	CD Universidad San Martin
23/04/23 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	0-2 HT 0-1	Alianza Universidad
23/08/21 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Universidad	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Universidad San Martin

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carlos Manucci	5	3	2	0	13	3	13
2	CD Universidad San Martin	5	3	0	2	7	11	9
3	Bentin Tacna Heroica	5	1	2	2	4	6	6
4	Alianza Universidad	5	0	2	3	5	9	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Universidad	CD Universidad San Martin
Bentin Tacna Heroica	0-1 L	2-1 W
Carlos Manucci	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Universidad

DWLDDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
17/10	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
13/10	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-3	4	8	L
06/10	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
27/09	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
06/09	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
29/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
24/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	2	5	D

CD Universidad San Martin

LWWLDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-2	1	9	L
18/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
06/10	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
26/09	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
13/09	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
29/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
01/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Universidad vs CD Universidad San Martin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Universidad win (39%). Probabilities: Alianza Universidad 39%, draw 29%, CD Universidad San Martin 32%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Universidad vs CD Universidad San Martin?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Alianza Universidad 1.41 · CD Universidad San Martin 1.27), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Universidad vs CD Universidad San Martin?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.