Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: Pafos FC vs AEL Limassol

Team pages: Pafos FC · AEL Limassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Pafos FC2.03

AEL Limassol0.66

1X2

69% 20% 11%

Pafos FC Draw AEL Limassol

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pafos FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLLWDWWDW

AEL Limassol 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Pafos FC 6–0 AEL Limassol (6 last)

Pafos FC3-1AEL Limassol
AEL Limassol1-2Pafos FC
AEL Limassol0-1Pafos FC
Pafos FC1-0AEL Limassol
Pafos FC4-0AEL Limassol
AEL Limassol1-3Pafos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pafos FC 1573 · AEL Limassol 1506

	Pafos FC	Draw	AEL Limassol
Our model	69%	21%	10%
Market	70%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pafos FC (rating 1573 vs 1506).
H2H favours Pafos FC: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pafos FC	AEL Limassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	1.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +9’	1.33	4.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pafos FC 6–0–0 AEL Limassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Cyprus Cup	Pafos FC	3-1 HT 1-1	AEL Limassol
08/04/26 Cyprus Cup	AEL Limassol	1-2 HT 1-2	Pafos FC
15/02/26 Cyprus Division 1	AEL Limassol	0-1 HT 0-1	Pafos FC
02/11/25 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	1-0 HT 1-0	AEL Limassol
06/01/25 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	4-0 HT 1-0	AEL Limassol
22/09/24 Cyprus Division 1	AEL Limassol	1-3 HT 1-0	Pafos FC

Standings · Cyprus Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pafos FC	3	2	1	0	4	0	7
2	AEK Larnaca	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
3	AEL Limassol	3	2	0	1	4	7	6
4	Omonia Nicosia	3	1	2	0	4	1	5
5	Apollon Limassol	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
6	Omonia Aradippou	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	3	1	2	0	8	5	5
8	Anorthosis Famagusta	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
9	Olympiakos Nicosia	3	0	3	0	6	6	3
10	Apoel Nicosia	3	1	0	2	8	5	3
11	APK Karmotissa	3	0	2	1	3	6	2
12	Aris Limassol	2	0	1	1	3	6	1
13	Nea Salamis Famagusta	3	0	1	2	5	9	1
14	Krasava ENY Ypsonas	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pafos FC	AEL Limassol
Olympiakos Nicosia	0-0 D	1-3 L
Apoel Nicosia	2-0 W	0-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pafos FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pafos FC

DDLLWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/09	Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
30/08	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
22/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
10/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
06/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
03/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
26/04	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-2	3-3	7	4	D
18/04	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	4	D

AEL Limassol

DWWLDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-1	1	11	W
06/09	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-2	0-6	0	6	L
30/08	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
15/05	Akritas Chlorakas Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
09/05	Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
02/05	Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
27/04	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
17/04	Enosis Paralimni Cyprus Division 1	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
04/04	Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
22/03	Ethnikos Achnas Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-1	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pafos FC vs AEL Limassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pafos FC win (69%). Probabilities: Pafos FC 69%, draw 20%, AEL Limassol 11%.

How many goals are expected in Pafos FC vs AEL Limassol?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Pafos FC 2.03 · AEL Limassol 0.66), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pafos FC vs AEL Limassol?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.