Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 19/09, 18:00
Prediction: Apollon Limassol vs Apoel Nicosia
Team pages: Apollon Limassol · Apoel Nicosia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
Apollon Limassol1.75
Apoel Nicosia1.33
1X2
Apollon Limassol
Draw
Apoel Nicosia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Apollon Limassol
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Apoel Nicosia
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Apollon Limassol
4–1–1
Apoel Nicosia
(6 last)
- Apollon Limassol2-0Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia0-0Apollon Limassol
- Apollon Limassol4-2Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia2-3Apollon Limassol
- Apollon Limassol2-1Apoel Nicosia
- Apoel Nicosia2-0Apollon Limassol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Apollon Limassol 1552 · Apoel Nicosia 1452
| Apollon Limassol | Draw | Apoel Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apollon Limassol (rating 1552 vs 1452).
- H2H favours Apollon Limassol: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Apollon Limassol | Apoel Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.3 | 2.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Apollon Limassol 4–1–1 Apoel Nicosia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Apollon Limassol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 29/04/26 Cyprus Cup | Apoel Nicosia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Apollon Limassol |
| 22/04/26 Cyprus Cup | Apollon Limassol | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 14/04/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Apollon Limassol |
| 18/01/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Apollon Limassol | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Apoel Nicosia |
| 28/09/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Apoel Nicosia | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Apollon Limassol |
Standings · Cyprus Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pafos FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | AEL Limassol | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Omonia Aradippou | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 9 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Apoel Nicosia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | APK Karmotissa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 12 | Aris Limassol | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 13 | Nea Salamis Famagusta | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 14 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Apollon Limassol | Apoel Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Anorthosis Famagusta | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Aris Limassol | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| AEK Larnaca | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Pafos FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Apollon Limassol (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Apollon Limassol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 05/09 | Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 22/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
3-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Apoel Nicosia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | AEL Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 22/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Apollon Limassol vs Apoel Nicosia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Apollon Limassol win (45%). Probabilities: Apollon Limassol 45%, draw 27%, Apoel Nicosia 28%.
How many goals are expected in Apollon Limassol vs Apoel Nicosia?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Apollon Limassol 1.75 · Apoel Nicosia 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Apollon Limassol vs Apoel Nicosia?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.