Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 25/09, 20:00

Prediction: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)

Team pages: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) · Fram Reykjavik (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.99

Fram Reykjavik (W)1.21

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Draw Fram Reykjavik (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Fram Reykjavik (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 3–1–2 Fram Reykjavik (W) (6 last)

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)2-0Fram Reykjavik (W)
Fram Reykjavik (W)3-2Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-1Fram Reykjavik (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-2Fram Reykjavik (W)
Fram Reykjavik (W)1-3Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)5-1Fram Reykjavik (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1508 · Fram Reykjavik (W) 1515

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Draw	Fram Reykjavik (W)
Our model	55%	24%	22%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Thor/KA Akureyri (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Fram Reykjavik (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.21 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:44 +27’	1.61	3.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +23’	1.62	4.37	4.06
06:27 +41’	1.63▲	4.33▼	4.01▼
08:01 +13’	1.65▲	4.21▼	3.99▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 3–1–2 Fram Reykjavik (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Fram Reykjavik (W)
25/05/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Fram Reykjavik (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
09/10/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)
30/08/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)
17/05/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Fram Reykjavik (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
23/02/25 Iceland Cup Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	5-1 HT 3-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women · Besta deild, Women 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fram Reykjavik (W)	19	7	2	10	30	45	23
2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	19	6	4	9	25	28	22
3	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	19	6	3	10	29	40	21
4	Valur Reykjavik (W)	19	5	5	9	22	32	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Fram Reykjavik (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)	1-0 W	4-1 W
FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	1-2 L	4-6 L
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	3-0 W	2-2 D
Breidablik (W)	0-2 L	3-2 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	2-1 W	3-2 W
Stjarnan (W)	2-3 L	3-2 W
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fram Reykjavik (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
06/09	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
21/08	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
14/08	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
07/08	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
29/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
19/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
09/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W

Fram Reykjavik (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
05/09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	8	1	W
20/08	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
12/08	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	4-6	7	2	L
07/08	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
29/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	4-1	4	6	W
19/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
14/07	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
09/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Thor/KA Akureyri (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 55%, draw 23%, Fram Reykjavik (W) 22%.

How many goals are expected in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.99 · Fram Reykjavik (W) 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.