Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 02/10, 20:00

Prediction: Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)

Team pages: Fram Reykjavik (W) · Valur Reykjavik (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Fram Reykjavik (W)1.61

Valur Reykjavik (W)1.9

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Fram Reykjavik (W) Draw Valur Reykjavik (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Fram Reykjavik (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWWDW

Valur Reykjavik (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWDWLD

Head-to-head

Fram Reykjavik (W) 4–1–1 Valur Reykjavik (W) (6 last)

Fram Reykjavik (W)4-1Valur Reykjavik (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)0-0Fram Reykjavik (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)1-2Fram Reykjavik (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)5-0Fram Reykjavik (W)
Fram Reykjavik (W)1-0Valur Reykjavik (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)1-2Fram Reykjavik (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fram Reykjavik (W) 1520 · Valur Reykjavik (W) 1478

	Fram Reykjavik (W)	Draw	Valur Reykjavik (W)
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fram Reykjavik (W) (rating 1520 vs 1478).
H2H favours Fram Reykjavik (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fram Reykjavik (W)	Valur Reykjavik (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.1	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.1	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.04 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.82
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:03 +8’	2.80	3.75	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +18’	3.10	3.83	1.97
04:44 +26’	3.04▼	3.82▼	1.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fram Reykjavik (W) 4–1–1 Valur Reykjavik (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Fram Reykjavik (W)	4-1 HT 1-0	Valur Reykjavik (W)
20/05/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Valur Reykjavik (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Fram Reykjavik (W)
09/03/26 Iceland Cup Women	Valur Reykjavik (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Fram Reykjavik (W)
16/01/26 Iceland Cup Women	Valur Reykjavik (W)	5-0 HT 1-0	Fram Reykjavik (W)
20/09/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Fram Reykjavik (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Valur Reykjavik (W)
15/06/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Valur Reykjavik (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Fram Reykjavik (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women · Besta deild, Women 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Fram Reykjavik (W)	20	8	2	10	32	46	26
2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	20	6	4	10	26	30	22
3	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	20	6	4	10	30	41	22
4	Valur Reykjavik (W)	20	5	6	9	23	33	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fram Reykjavik (W)	Valur Reykjavik (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	2-2 D	1-1 D
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	3-2 W	1-2 L
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	0-4 L	4-1 W
FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	4-6 L	2-2 D
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fram Reykjavik (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fram Reykjavik (W)

WWWLLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	2-1	5	1	W
18/09	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
05/09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	3-2	8	1	W
20/08	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
12/08	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	4-6	7	2	L
07/08	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
29/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	4-1	4	6	W
19/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
14/07	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Valur Reykjavik (W)

LLLWLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
19/09	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	11	2	L
06/09	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	4-1	11	7	W
30/08	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-2	2-2	6	2	D
21/08	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/08	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
07/08	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
29/07	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-4	8	6	L
21/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-6	1-7	3	2	L
15/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-2	1-2	7	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valur Reykjavik (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Fram Reykjavik (W) 32%, draw 24%, Valur Reykjavik (W) 44%.

How many goals are expected in Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Fram Reykjavik (W) 1.61 · Valur Reykjavik (W) 1.9), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fram Reykjavik (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.