Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Breidablik (W)

Team pages: IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) · Breidablik (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)1.45

Breidablik (W)2.8

1X2

17% 18% 65%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Draw Breidablik (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLWLW

Breidablik (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLLDW

Head-to-head

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1–1–4 Breidablik (W) (6 last)

Breidablik (W)1-2IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)0-3Breidablik (W)
Breidablik (W)7-0IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
Breidablik (W)3-2IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
Breidablik (W)0-0IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)0-3Breidablik (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1478 · Breidablik (W) 1560

	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	Draw	Breidablik (W)
Our model	17%	18%	65%
Market	17%	18%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breidablik (W) (rating 1478 vs 1560).
H2H favours Breidablik (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	Breidablik (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	2.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	4.6 / 9.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X5.00

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.19 ★
2	1.38 → 1.38	Pinn 1.41

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +12’	5.25	5.00	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +78’	5.21	5.19	1.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1–1–4 Breidablik (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Breidablik (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
22/06/26 Iceland Premier League Women	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	0-3 HT 0-3	Breidablik (W)
10/03/26 Iceland Cup Women	Breidablik (W)	7-0 HT 5-0	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
31/07/25 Iceland Cup Women	Breidablik (W)	3-2 HT 0-1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
20/08/23 Iceland Premier League Women	Breidablik (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
12/06/23 Iceland Premier League Women	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Breidablik (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women · Besta deild, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Breidablik (W)	19	13	1	5	50	22	40
2	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	19	12	4	3	57	32	40
3	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	19	9	3	7	35	37	30
4	Stjarnan (W)	19	7	5	7	31	28	26
5	Throttur Reykjavik (W)	19	6	5	8	27	31	23
6	Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	19	6	4	9	26	37	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	Breidablik (W)
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	4-3 W	1-1 D
Fram Reykjavik (W)	2-3 L	2-3 L
Stjarnan (W)	3-2 W	0-2 L
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	2-4 L	4-1 W
FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	2-2 D	3-0 W
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Valur Reykjavik (W)	2-1 W	7-1 W
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	3-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Breidablik (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)

WWLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	3-1	4-3	5	2	W
05/09	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
21/08	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
13/08	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	3-2	10	2	W
07/08	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-4	2-4	4	4	L
29/07	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
19/07	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
15/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	3-1	7	0	W

Breidablik (W)

LWWWWWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	3-0	4-1	9	3	W
07/09	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
29/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
20/08	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-2	18	1	L
15/08	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
12/08	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
29/07	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
21/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	6-0	7-1	7	2	W
15/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	4-1	10	0	W
09/07	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	2-3	10	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Breidablik (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Breidablik (W) win (65%). Probabilities: IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 17%, draw 18%, Breidablik (W) 65%.

How many goals are expected in IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Breidablik (W)?

The model expects 4.25 goals (IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1.45 · Breidablik (W) 2.8), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) vs Breidablik (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.