Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 13/09, 19:00

Prediction: Toledo vs Villarrubia CF

Team pages: Toledo · Villarrubia CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Toledo1.69

Villarrubia CF0.64

1X2

62% 24% 13%

Toledo Draw Villarrubia CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Toledo 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWLLDW

Villarrubia CF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDDLWD

Head-to-head

Toledo 3–2–1 Villarrubia CF (6 last)

Villarrubia CF2-1Toledo
Toledo1-1Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF0-2Toledo
Toledo1-1Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF0-1Toledo
Toledo3-0Villarrubia CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toledo 1528 · Villarrubia CF 1484

	Toledo	Draw	Villarrubia CF
Our model	62%	26%	13%
Market	63%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toledo (rating 1528 vs 1484).
H2H favours Toledo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toledo	Villarrubia CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	0.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X3.80

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.42▼	Bet365 1.42
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:31 +15’	1.48	3.60	6.50
13:47 +2’	1.42▼	3.80▲	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toledo 3–2–1 Villarrubia CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	2-1 HT 1-1	Toledo
14/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	1-1 HT 1-0	Villarrubia CF
22/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	0-2	Toledo
10/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	1-1 HT 1-0	Villarrubia CF
12/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	0-1 HT 0-0	Toledo
21/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Toledo	3-0 HT 1-0	Villarrubia CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	Toledo	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
3	Marchamalo	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	CD Noblejas	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
4	CD Villacanas	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Illescas	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	CD Torrijos	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	CD Villa	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	Villarrubia CF	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Villarrobledo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Socuéllamos	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	AD San Clemente	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Almansa	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	CD Tarancon	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	La Solana	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	CD Quintanar del Rey	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
17	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
18	Huracan Balazote	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toledo	Villarrubia CF
CD Pedroneras	0-1 L	0-1 L
Calvo Sotelo	0-2 L	1-2 L
AD San Clemente	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toledo

DDWDWWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	4-2	7	3	W
17/05	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
10/05	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/04	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	4-0	–	–	W
18/04	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	4-0	4	7	W
11/04	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
02/04	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/03	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/03	Albacete B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Villarrubia CF

LLLWWDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
25/04	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	2-2	2-2	5	5	D
19/04	Azuqueca Spain Tercera Group 18	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
11/04	CD Sonseca Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/04	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
28/03	CD Pedroneras Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/03	Calvo Sotelo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
15/03	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toledo vs Villarrubia CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toledo win (62%). Probabilities: Toledo 62%, draw 24%, Villarrubia CF 13%.

How many goals are expected in Toledo vs Villarrubia CF?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Toledo 1.69 · Villarrubia CF 0.64), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Toledo vs Villarrubia CF?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.