Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 18/10, 19:00

Prediction: Mictlán vs AFF Guatemala

Team pages: Mictlán · AFF Guatemala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

Mictlán2.65

AFF Guatemala1.11

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Mictlán Draw AFF Guatemala

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Mictlán 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLWLW

AFF Guatemala 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Mictlán 3–1–1 AFF Guatemala (5 last)

AFF Guatemala0-3Mictlán
AFF Guatemala2-2Mictlán
Mictlán3-0AFF Guatemala
AFF Guatemala1-0Mictlán
Mictlán1-0AFF Guatemala

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mictlán 1551 · AFF Guatemala 1416

	Mictlán	Draw	AFF Guatemala
Our model	69%	18%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mictlán (rating 1551 vs 1416).
H2H favours Mictlán: 3-1-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mictlán	AFF Guatemala
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.3	0.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/13/13%	0/29/71%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.9	2.9 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0.9	5.6 / 1.3

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.20▼	Bet365 1.20
X	5.00 → 5.50▲	Pinn 6.31 ★
2	7.00 → 10.00▲	Pinn 10.23

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:32 +7’	1.30	5.00	7.00
01:51 +26’	1.17▼	5.75▲	13.00▲
12:19 +6’	1.20▲	5.50▼	11.00▼
15:35 +22’	1.20	5.50	10.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +59’	1.17	5.77	9.72
12:47 +70’	1.17▼	5.80▲	9.80▲
15:02 +55’	1.15▼	6.31▲	10.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mictlán 3–1–1 AFF Guatemala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	AFF Guatemala	0-3 HT 0-1	Mictlán
20/03/25 Guatemala Primera Division	AFF Guatemala	2-2 HT 1-2	Mictlán
09/02/25 Guatemala Primera Division	Mictlán	3-0 HT 0-0	AFF Guatemala
15/09/24 Guatemala Primera Division	AFF Guatemala	1-0 HT 1-0	Mictlán
28/07/24 Guatemala Primera Division	Mictlán	1-0 HT 0-0	AFF Guatemala

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	16	12	0	4	26	18	36
2	CS Deportivo Sacachispas	16	11	2	3	33	12	35
3	Mictlán	15	10	3	2	32	14	33
4	Deportivo Fraijanes	17	8	2	7	29	25	26
5	San Benito FC	16	8	2	6	27	23	26
6	CSD Sayaxche	17	7	4	6	22	17	25
7	CSD Chiquimulilla	17	6	2	9	19	20	20
8	CD Achuapa	17	5	3	9	13	22	18
9	AFF Guatemala	16	4	0	12	9	29	12
10	Champs Academy	17	1	2	14	7	37	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mictlán	AFF Guatemala
Champs Academy	3-0 W	0-2 L
CSD Sayaxche	1-2 L	1-3 L
CSD Chiquimulilla	3-1 W	1-0 W
Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	3-4 L	0-2 L
CS Deportivo Sacachispas	1-1 D	0-3 L
CD Achuapa	4-1 W	0-1 L
San Benito FC	2-2 D	0-4 L
Deportivo Fraijanes	4-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Mictlán (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mictlán

WWWDWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	3-0	12	6	W
07/10	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
04/10	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	2-1	3-1	4	9	W
01/10	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	1-3	3-4	3	12	L
27/09	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
20/09	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	4-1	1	8	W
13/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	2-2	13	5	D
06/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	4-2	5	6	W
29/08	AFF Guatemala Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	3-0	5	11	W
23/08	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

AFF Guatemala

WLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
07/10	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
04/10	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
30/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-2	10	7	L
27/09	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	12	L
19/09	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
06/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
29/08	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-3	7	11	L
22/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	2-1	15	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mictlán vs AFF Guatemala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mictlán win (69%). Probabilities: Mictlán 69%, draw 18%, AFF Guatemala 13%.

How many goals are expected in Mictlán vs AFF Guatemala?

The model expects 3.76 goals (Mictlán 2.65 · AFF Guatemala 1.11), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mictlán vs AFF Guatemala?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.