Football · Poland II Liga · 11/09, 12:00

Prediction: Sokol Kleczew vs Olimpia Grudziadz

Team pages: Sokol Kleczew · Olimpia Grudziadz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Sokol Kleczew1.49

Olimpia Grudziadz2.06

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Sokol Kleczew Draw Olimpia Grudziadz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sokol Kleczew 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Olimpia Grudziadz 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDDWLW

Head-to-head

Sokol Kleczew 2–3–1 Olimpia Grudziadz (6 last)

Sokol Kleczew1-0Olimpia Grudziadz
Olimpia Grudziadz2-1Sokol Kleczew
Olimpia Grudziadz1-1Sokol Kleczew
Sokol Kleczew1-0Olimpia Grudziadz
Olimpia Grudziadz0-0Sokol Kleczew
Olimpia Grudziadz0-0Sokol Kleczew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sokol Kleczew 1476 · Olimpia Grudziadz 1569

	Sokol Kleczew	Draw	Olimpia Grudziadz
Our model	27%	23%	50%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Grudziadz (rating 1476 vs 1569).
H2H favours Sokol Kleczew: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sokol Kleczew	Olimpia Grudziadz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.7	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.11 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.75
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +14’	3.50	3.50	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:25 +66’	4.39	3.84	1.65
23:17 +53’	4.11▼	3.75▼	1.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sokol Kleczew 2–3–1 Olimpia Grudziadz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Poland II Liga	Sokol Kleczew	1-0 HT 1-0	Olimpia Grudziadz
05/10/25 Poland II Liga	Olimpia Grudziadz	2-1 HT 0-0	Sokol Kleczew
28/06/25 Europe Friendlies	Olimpia Grudziadz	1-1 HT 1-0	Sokol Kleczew
25/03/23 Poland III Liga	Sokol Kleczew	1-0 HT 1-0	Olimpia Grudziadz
21/08/22 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Grudziadz	0-0 HT 0-0	Sokol Kleczew
01/04/22 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Grudziadz	0-0 HT 0-0	Sokol Kleczew

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	7	5	1	1	15	8	16
2	GKS Tychy 71	7	4	3	0	11	5	15
3	Hutnik Krakow	7	4	2	1	15	8	14
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	7	4	2	1	15	10	14
5	Gornik Leczna	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
6	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	7	3	2	2	9	6	11
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	7	3	2	2	13	14	11
8	Olimpia Grudziadz	7	3	2	2	9	11	11
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	7	2	3	2	15	12	9
11	Avia Swidnik	7	3	0	4	10	13	9
12	Chojniczanka Chojnice	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	7	2	1	4	12	12	7
14	Legia Warsaw II	7	2	0	5	14	13	6
15	Slask Wroclaw II	7	2	0	5	11	13	6
16	Sokol Kleczew	7	1	3	3	7	18	6
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	7	1	2	4	8	15	5
18	Resovia Rzeszow	7	0	3	4	6	15	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sokol Kleczew	Olimpia Grudziadz
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	3-0 W	2-1 W
Lechia Zielona Góra	1-6 L	2-2 D
Podhale Nowy Targ	0-0 D	1-3 L
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	2-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sokol Kleczew

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
29/08	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
23/08	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	1-2	1-6	7	2	L
15/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	3-0	3-0	5	4	W
08/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-2	1-6	9	4	L
01/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/05	LKS Lodz II Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
23/05	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	0-1	2-5	3	5	L
16/05	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland II Liga	0-2	0-3	3	3	L

Olimpia Grudziadz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
29/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
23/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
01/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
26/07	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-1	1-4	7	5	L
30/05	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
24/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	3-0	3-1	6	5	W
09/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sokol Kleczew vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpia Grudziadz win (49%). Probabilities: Sokol Kleczew 26%, draw 25%, Olimpia Grudziadz 49%.

How many goals are expected in Sokol Kleczew vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Sokol Kleczew 1.49 · Olimpia Grudziadz 2.06), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sokol Kleczew vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.