Football · Poland II Liga · 19/09, 17:00

Prediction: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Grudziadz

Team pages: Chojniczanka Chojnice · Olimpia Grudziadz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.73

Olimpia Grudziadz1.64

1X2

39% 25% 35%

Chojniczanka Chojnice Draw Olimpia Grudziadz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chojniczanka Chojnice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWDDW

Olimpia Grudziadz 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDWLWD

Head-to-head

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–2–2 Olimpia Grudziadz (6 last)

Chojniczanka Chojnice2-2Olimpia Grudziadz
Olimpia Grudziadz2-1Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice4-1Olimpia Grudziadz
Olimpia Grudziadz0-0Chojniczanka Chojnice
Olimpia Grudziadz0-1Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice1-2Olimpia Grudziadz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1518 · Olimpia Grudziadz 1572

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Draw	Olimpia Grudziadz
Our model	40%	25%	36%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Grudziadz (rating 1518 vs 1572).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Olimpia Grudziadz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	3.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.67

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +48’	2.10	3.40	2.88
14:35 +2’	2.45▲	3.30▼	2.45▼
20:16 +3’	2.40▼	3.50▲	2.40▼
06:45 +9’	2.30▼	3.50	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +1’	2.28	3.39	2.79
16:41 +8’	2.55▲	3.30▼	2.48▼
17:28 +171’	2.53▼	3.30	2.50▲
06:16 +38’	2.41▼	3.33▲	2.66▲
08:01 +53’	2.42▲	3.30▼	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2–2–2 Olimpia Grudziadz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Poland II Liga	Chojniczanka Chojnice	2-2 HT 1-1	Olimpia Grudziadz
19/10/25 Poland II Liga	Olimpia Grudziadz	2-1 HT 1-1	Chojniczanka Chojnice
07/06/25 Poland II Liga	Chojniczanka Chojnice	4-1 HT 2-1	Olimpia Grudziadz
01/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Olimpia Grudziadz	0-0 HT 0-0	Chojniczanka Chojnice
09/11/24 Poland II Liga	Olimpia Grudziadz	0-1 HT 0-0	Chojniczanka Chojnice
06/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Chojniczanka Chojnice	1-2 HT 0-2	Olimpia Grudziadz

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Leczna	9	5	2	2	18	9	17
2	Znicz Pruszków	8	5	2	1	16	9	17
3	GKS Tychy 71	8	4	4	0	12	6	16
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16	11	16
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	9	5	1	3	14	9	16
6	Hutnik Krakow	8	4	3	1	16	9	15
7	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	8	4	2	2	13	8	14
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	8	4	2	2	18	14	14
9	Lechia Zielona Góra	8	3	3	2	16	12	12
10	Olimpia Grudziadz	8	3	3	2	10	12	12
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	8	3	2	3	13	13	11
12	Avia Swidnik	9	3	1	5	12	16	10
13	Sokol Kleczew	9	1	5	3	10	21	8
14	Stal Stalowa Wola	8	2	1	5	12	17	7
15	Legia Warsaw II	8	2	0	6	15	17	6
16	Slask Wroclaw II	8	2	0	6	13	17	6
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	9	1	2	6	9	23	5
18	Resovia Rzeszow	8	0	3	5	6	16	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Olimpia Grudziadz
OKS Swit Skolwin	5-1 W	1-0 W
Sokol Kleczew	1-1 D	1-1 D
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	0-3 L	3-1 W
GKS Tychy 71	0-1 L	1-1 D
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chojniczanka Chojnice

WWLLLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	2-1	5-1	7	5	W
05/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
29/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
09/08	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
02/08	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	7	8	L
26/07	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
30/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	2-0	2-0	0	2	W
22/05	Unia Skierniewice Poland II Liga	1-1	3-2	9	8	W

Olimpia Grudziadz

WDWLDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
06/09	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
29/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
23/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
01/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
26/07	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-1	1-4	7	5	L
30/05	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
24/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	3-0	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chojniczanka Chojnice win (39%). Probabilities: Chojniczanka Chojnice 39%, draw 25%, Olimpia Grudziadz 35%.

How many goals are expected in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.73 · Olimpia Grudziadz 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.