Football · Iceland Premier League · 20/09, 18:00

Prediction: IA Akranes vs Breidablik

Team pages: IA Akranes · Breidablik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

IA Akranes1.95

Breidablik1.6

1X2

45% 23% 31%

IA Akranes Draw Breidablik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

IA Akranes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDDWL

Breidablik 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDLLLW

Head-to-head

IA Akranes 2–4 Breidablik (6 last)

IA Akranes1-2Breidablik
Breidablik1-0IA Akranes
IA Akranes3-0Breidablik
Breidablik1-4IA Akranes
Breidablik2-0IA Akranes
IA Akranes1-2Breidablik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IA Akranes 1501 · Breidablik 1507

	IA Akranes	Draw	Breidablik
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Breidablik: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IA Akranes	Breidablik
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.5	2.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.01
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.27 ★
2	2.75 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.08

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:27 +10’	2.10	4.00	2.75
07:43 +5’	2.00▼	4.00	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +21’	2.14	4.13	2.71
22:30 +60’	2.16▲	4.19▲	2.74▲
16:38 +183’	2.17▲	4.16▼	2.74
09:03 +77’	2.00▼	4.21▲	3.02▲
03:18 +55’	2.01▲	4.20▼	3.00▼
07:03 +46’	1.99▼	4.21▲	3.05▲
18:02 +208’	2.01▲	4.27▲	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IA Akranes 2–0–4 Breidablik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	1-2 HT 1-0	Breidablik
17/04/26 Iceland Premier League	Breidablik	1-0 HT 1-0	IA Akranes
11/09/25 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	3-0 HT 2-0	Breidablik
29/05/25 Iceland Premier League	Breidablik	1-4 HT 1-3	IA Akranes
23/09/24 Iceland Premier League	Breidablik	2-0 HT 0-0	IA Akranes
25/08/24 Iceland Premier League	IA Akranes	1-2 HT 0-0	Breidablik

Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	23	17	5	1	71	22	56
2	KR Reykjavik	23	14	5	4	79	50	47
3	Fram Reykjavik	23	13	6	4	57	45	45
4	Breidablik	23	9	6	8	46	42	33
5	IA Akranes	23	8	6	9	40	46	30
6	Keflavik	23	8	4	11	34	42	28

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IA Akranes	Breidablik
KR Reykjavik	1-5 L	3-3 D
Valur Reykjavik	2-2 D	1-3 L
FH Hafnarfjordur	1-1 D	0-0 D
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3-1 W	1-0 W
Thor Akureyri	2-0 W	0-1 L
Stjarnan	5-1 W	0-2 L
Keflavik	2-5 L	2-1 W
KA Akureyri	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: IA Akranes (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IA Akranes

LLWDWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-3	1-5	10	4	L
06/09	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	9	1	W
30/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-2	10	3	D
23/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
16/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
09/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
26/07	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	2	W
20/07	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	2-5	5	3	L
12/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-3	6	3	L

Breidablik

WDWLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
06/09	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
31/08	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
24/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-4	3-4	8	4	L
16/08	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	3-3	7	5	D
09/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
04/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
27/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
20/07	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
13/07	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IA Akranes vs Breidablik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IA Akranes win (45%). Probabilities: IA Akranes 45%, draw 23%, Breidablik 31%.

How many goals are expected in IA Akranes vs Breidablik?

The model expects 3.55 goals (IA Akranes 1.95 · Breidablik 1.6), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IA Akranes vs Breidablik?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.