Football · Iceland Premier League · 20/09, 18:00
Prediction: Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik
Team pages: Keflavik · Fram Reykjavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.92Total
Keflavik1.76
Fram Reykjavik2.16
1X2
Keflavik
Draw
Fram Reykjavik
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Keflavik
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Fram Reykjavik
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Keflavik
1–2–3
Fram Reykjavik
(6 last)
- Keflavik1-1Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik3-1Keflavik
- Keflavik4-3Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik3-1Keflavik
- Keflavik0-0Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik4-1Keflavik
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keflavik 1473 · Fram Reykjavik 1527
| Keflavik | Draw | Fram Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fram Reykjavik (rating 1473 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Fram Reykjavik: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keflavik | Fram Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 3.9 / 8.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keflavik 1–2–3 Fram Reykjavik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/26 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 17/04/26 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
| 06/03/26 Iceland League Cup | Keflavik | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 28/09/23 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
| 27/08/23 Iceland Premier League | Keflavik | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 02/06/23 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Keflavik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 56 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 79 | 50 | 47 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 57 | 45 | 45 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 42 | 33 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 46 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 42 | 28 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keflavik | Fram Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Valur Reykjavik | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Thor Akureyri | 2-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Stjarnan | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| KA Akureyri | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Breidablik | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 5 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Fram Reykjavik (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keflavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Fram Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 24/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
4-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 26/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fram Reykjavik win (46%). Probabilities: Keflavik 31%, draw 23%, Fram Reykjavik 46%.
How many goals are expected in Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik?
The model expects 3.92 goals (Keflavik 1.76 · Fram Reykjavik 2.16), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.