Football · Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League · 10/09, 20:45
Prediction: Tolka Rovers vs Finglas United
Team pages: Tolka Rovers · Finglas United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Tolka Rovers1.48
Finglas United1.59
1X2
Tolka Rovers
Draw
Finglas United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tolka Rovers
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Finglas United
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tolka Rovers
1–1
Finglas United
(2 last)
- Finglas United3-1Tolka Rovers
- Tolka Rovers2-1Finglas United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tolka Rovers 1427 · Finglas United 1476
| Tolka Rovers | Draw | Finglas United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Finglas United (rating 1427 vs 1476).
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tolka Rovers | Finglas United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.5 | 2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tolka Rovers 1–0–1 Finglas United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League | Finglas United | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Tolka Rovers |
| 17/10/25 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League | Tolka Rovers | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Finglas United |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tolka Rovers | Finglas United |
|---|---|---|
| Killester Donnycarney FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Glebe North FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Bangor Celtic FC | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Malahide Utd | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| St Mochtas | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tolka Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Killester Donnycarney FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Inchicore Athletic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/08 | Glebe North FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 21/08 | Bangor Celtic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
2-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/08 | Montpelier FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Inchicore Athletic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-3 | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/06 | Lucan United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | Inchicore Athletic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/06 | Malahide Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 19/05 | St Mochtas Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Finglas United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Malahide Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 26/08 | Killester Donnycarney FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Bangor Celtic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/08 | Glebe North FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | Bangor Celtic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
2-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Malahide Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/06 | St Mochtas Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 27/05 | UCD II Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Kilbarrack Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tolka Rovers vs Finglas United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Finglas United win (40%). Probabilities: Tolka Rovers 35%, draw 25%, Finglas United 40%.
How many goals are expected in Tolka Rovers vs Finglas United?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Tolka Rovers 1.48 · Finglas United 1.59), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tolka Rovers vs Finglas United?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.