Football · Latvia Virsliga · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs RFS

Team pages: FK Auda · RFS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

FK Auda0.87

RFS1.62

1X2

20% 25% 55%

FK Auda Draw RFS

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDWDW

RFS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

FK Auda 2–1–3 RFS (6 last)

RFS1-1FK Auda
FK Auda0-3RFS
RFS0-1FK Auda
RFS0-2FK Auda
FK Auda0-1RFS
RFS1-0FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1549 · RFS 1589

	FK Auda	Draw	RFS
Our model	19%	27%	54%
Market	21%	24%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1549 vs 1589).
H2H favours RFS: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	RFS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.75

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.37 ★
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.72
2	1.61 → 1.67▲	Pinn 1.72

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +1’	4.33	3.75	1.61
21:00 +15’	4.20▼	3.60▼	1.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +242’	4.37	3.72	1.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 2–1–3 RFS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Auda
17/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	0-3 HT 0-2	RFS
04/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Auda
17/09/25 Latvia Cup	RFS	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Auda
31/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	0-1 HT 0-0	RFS
22/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	29	23	4	2	70	21	73
2	Riga FC	30	21	7	2	85	30	70
3	FK Auda	30	18	6	6	48	29	60
4	FK Liepaja	30	12	6	12	41	43	42
5	BFC Daugavpils	30	10	8	12	35	35	38
6	SK Super Nova	29	10	5	14	29	39	35
7	FK Jelgava	30	8	8	14	32	48	32
8	SC Grobinas	30	5	10	15	20	51	25
9	Tukums 2000	30	5	8	17	43	60	23
10	Ogre United	30	3	6	21	29	76	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	RFS
Ogre United	1-0 W	3-0 W
Riga FC	2-2 D	3-3 D
SC Grobinas	1-0 W	6-1 W
FK Liepaja	1-0 W	0-0 D
Tukums 2000	3-0 W	1-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	1-0 W
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Auda

LDWWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L

RFS

WWDWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
07/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
23/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	4-0	6-1	6	2	W
27/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
04/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
30/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs RFS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RFS win (55%). Probabilities: FK Auda 20%, draw 25%, RFS 55%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs RFS?

The model expects 2.48 goals (FK Auda 0.87 · RFS 1.62), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs RFS?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.