Football · Latvia Virsliga · 20/09, 13:00

Prediction: Ogre United vs SK Super Nova

Team pages: Ogre United · SK Super Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Ogre United1.29

SK Super Nova1.58

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Ogre United Draw SK Super Nova

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLLDL

SK Super Nova 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDDWWL

Head-to-head

Ogre United 1–1–3 SK Super Nova (5 last)

SK Super Nova1-2Ogre United
SK Super Nova3-1Ogre United
Ogre United1-2SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova3-0Ogre United
Ogre United1-1SK Super Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre United 1400 · SK Super Nova 1508

	Ogre United	Draw	SK Super Nova
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Super Nova (rating 1400 vs 1508).
H2H favours SK Super Nova: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ogre United	SK Super Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.6	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.13 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.13

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +10’	2.88	3.40	2.10
19:48 +18’	2.90▲	3.50▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +73’	3.13	3.46	2.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 1–1–3 SK Super Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-2 HT 0-0	Ogre United
16/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	3-1 HT 2-1	Ogre United
03/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	1-2 HT 0-2	SK Super Nova
10/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga	SK Super Nova	3-0 HT 1-0	Ogre United
27/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Ogre United	1-1 HT 1-1	SK Super Nova

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	29	23	4	2	70	21	73
2	Riga FC	30	21	7	2	85	30	70
3	FK Auda	30	18	6	6	48	29	60
4	FK Liepaja	30	12	6	12	41	43	42
5	BFC Daugavpils	30	10	8	12	35	35	38
6	SK Super Nova	29	10	5	14	29	39	35
7	FK Jelgava	30	8	8	14	32	48	32
8	SC Grobinas	30	5	10	15	20	51	25
9	Tukums 2000	30	5	8	17	43	60	23
10	Ogre United	30	3	6	21	29	76	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre United	SK Super Nova
FK Auda	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Liepaja	2-2 D	1-2 L
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	1-0 W
FK Jelgava	2-3 L	1-0 W
Riga FC	1-4 L	0-1 L
SC Grobinas	2-2 D	2-0 W
BFC Daugavpils	0-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre United

LWLDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
05/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
30/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-4	1-4	2	8	L
27/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
06/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
30/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	7	3	L

SK Super Nova

LWLWLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-3	1-5	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre United vs SK Super Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Super Nova win (43%). Probabilities: Ogre United 31%, draw 26%, SK Super Nova 43%.

How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs SK Super Nova?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Ogre United 1.29 · SK Super Nova 1.58), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ogre United vs SK Super Nova?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.