Football · Latvia Virsliga · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Tukums 2000 vs SC Grobinas

Team pages: Tukums 2000 · SC Grobinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Tukums 20001.42

SC Grobinas1.35

1X2

38% 28% 35%

Tukums 2000 Draw SC Grobinas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tukums 2000 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLWL

SC Grobinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Tukums 2000 1–2–3 SC Grobinas (6 last)

SC Grobinas3-1Tukums 2000
SC Grobinas3-3Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-1SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-0Tukums 2000
Tukums 20002-1SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas2-0Tukums 2000

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tukums 2000 1412 · SC Grobinas 1475

	Tukums 2000	Draw	SC Grobinas
Our model	38%	28%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Grobinas (rating 1412 vs 1475).
H2H favours SC Grobinas: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tukums 2000	SC Grobinas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.48
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:33 +12’	2.20	3.30	2.75
20:28 +3’	2.35▲	3.25▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +15’	2.48	3.23	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tukums 2000 1–2–3 SC Grobinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	3-1 HT 2-0	Tukums 2000
15/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	3-3 HT 2-2	Tukums 2000
05/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-1 HT 1-1	SC Grobinas
04/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-0 HT 0-0	Tukums 2000
21/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-1 HT 1-0	SC Grobinas
21/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	2-0 HT 1-0	Tukums 2000

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	29	23	4	2	70	21	73
2	Riga FC	30	21	7	2	85	30	70
3	FK Auda	30	18	6	6	48	29	60
4	FK Liepaja	30	12	6	12	41	43	42
5	BFC Daugavpils	30	10	8	12	35	35	38
6	SK Super Nova	29	10	5	14	29	39	35
7	FK Jelgava	30	8	8	14	32	48	32
8	SC Grobinas	30	5	10	15	20	51	25
9	Tukums 2000	30	5	8	17	43	60	23
10	Ogre United	30	3	6	21	29	76	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tukums 2000	SC Grobinas
SK Super Nova	0-1 L	0-2 L
Ogre United	2-1 W	2-2 D
FK Jelgava	1-4 L	0-0 D
FK Auda	0-3 L	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Liepaja	2-1 W	1-3 L
RFS	0-1 L	1-6 L
Riga FC	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Tukums 2000 (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tukums 2000

LLLLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
05/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
29/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
21/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
08/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
02/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
27/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
18/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
05/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
01/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	7	2	L

SC Grobinas

LWLDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
29/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tukums 2000 vs SC Grobinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tukums 2000 win (38%). Probabilities: Tukums 2000 38%, draw 28%, SC Grobinas 35%.

How many goals are expected in Tukums 2000 vs SC Grobinas?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Tukums 2000 1.42 · SC Grobinas 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tukums 2000 vs SC Grobinas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.