Football · Angola Girabola · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: Recreativo do Libolo vs Sagrada Esperanca

Team pages: Recreativo do Libolo · Sagrada Esperanca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Recreativo do Libolo1.31

Sagrada Esperanca1.43

1X2

32% 30% 38%

Recreativo do Libolo Draw Sagrada Esperanca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Recreativo do Libolo 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Sagrada Esperanca 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLWDDW

Head-to-head

Recreativo do Libolo 2–4 Sagrada Esperanca (6 last)

Recreativo do Libolo3-1Sagrada Esperanca
Sagrada Esperanca5-1Recreativo do Libolo
Sagrada Esperanca1-0Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo2-1Sagrada Esperanca
Recreativo do Libolo0-2Sagrada Esperanca
Sagrada Esperanca1-0Recreativo do Libolo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Recreativo do Libolo 1460 · Sagrada Esperanca 1503

	Recreativo do Libolo	Draw	Sagrada Esperanca
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	31%	32%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagrada Esperanca (rating 1460 vs 1503).
H2H favours Sagrada Esperanca: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Recreativo do Libolo	Sagrada Esperanca
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/0/75%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.3	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X2.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:57 +17’	2.88	2.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Recreativo do Libolo 2–0–4 Sagrada Esperanca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Angola Girabola	Recreativo do Libolo	3-1	Sagrada Esperanca
22/11/25 Angola Girabola	Sagrada Esperanca	5-1	Recreativo do Libolo
26/02/25 Angola Girabola	Sagrada Esperanca	1-0	Recreativo do Libolo
28/09/24 Angola Girabola	Recreativo do Libolo	2-1	Sagrada Esperanca
27/04/24 Angola Girabola	Recreativo do Libolo	0-2	Sagrada Esperanca
28/02/24 Angola Girabola	Sagrada Esperanca	1-0	Recreativo do Libolo

Standings · Angola Girabola

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wiliete SC	7	6	1	0	14	2	19
2	Desportivo da Huila	9	5	2	2	9	5	17
3	Petro Luanda	7	4	3	0	8	1	15
4	FC Bravos do Maquis	8	4	3	1	10	5	15
5	Primeiro de Agosto	7	4	2	1	10	7	14
6	GD Interclube	9	4	2	3	9	8	14
7	Sagrada Esperanca	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
8	CD Lunda Sul	8	2	4	2	7	6	10
9	CR Da Caala	8	2	3	3	7	8	9
10	Recreativo do Libolo	8	3	0	5	8	14	9
11	Sao Salvador	8	2	2	4	4	7	8
12	1º de Maio de Benguela	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
13	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	4	6	6
14	FC Luanda	8	1	2	5	7	13	5
15	FC Cabinda	7	0	4	3	3	8	4
16	Academica Do Lobito	8	0	3	5	2	11	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Recreativo do Libolo	Sagrada Esperanca
GD Interclube	0-1 L	1-1 D
1º de Maio de Benguela	2-1 W	3-0 W
FC Bravos do Maquis	0-1 L	0-3 L
Kabuscorp	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sagrada Esperanca (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Recreativo do Libolo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Desportivo da Huila Angola Girabola	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/10	GD Interclube Angola Girabola	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/10	FC Luanda Angola Girabola	1-0	2-1	5	11	W
20/09	Wiliete SC Angola Girabola	0-1	0-5	3	1	L
12/09	1º de Maio de Benguela Angola Girabola	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	FC Bravos do Maquis Angola Girabola	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Petro Luanda Angola Girabola	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
22/08	FC Cabinda Angola Girabola	–	3-0	–	–	W
24/05	Kabuscorp Angola Girabola	–	0-1	–	–	L
20/05	GD Interclube Angola Girabola	0-1	1-1	1	4	D

Sagrada Esperanca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	1º de Maio de Benguela Angola Girabola	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/10	CR Da Caala Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	GD Interclube Angola Girabola	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
07/10	Kabuscorp Angola Girabola	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	CD Lunda Sul Angola Girabola	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Sao Salvador Angola Girabola	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	FC Bravos do Maquis Angola Girabola	–	0-3	–	–	L
24/05	1º de Maio de Benguela Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/05	RSD Guelson FC Angola Girabola	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	CD Lunda Sul Angola Girabola	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Recreativo do Libolo vs Sagrada Esperanca?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sagrada Esperanca win (38%). Probabilities: Recreativo do Libolo 32%, draw 30%, Sagrada Esperanca 38%.

How many goals are expected in Recreativo do Libolo vs Sagrada Esperanca?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Recreativo do Libolo 1.31 · Sagrada Esperanca 1.43), with a 61% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Recreativo do Libolo vs Sagrada Esperanca?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.