Football · Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Velez Mostar vs Siroki Brijeg

Team pages: Velez Mostar · Siroki Brijeg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Velez Mostar1.46

Siroki Brijeg0.92

1X2

49% 29% 23%

Velez Mostar Draw Siroki Brijeg

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Velez Mostar 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLDLWL

Siroki Brijeg 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLLDL

Head-to-head

Velez Mostar 5–1 Siroki Brijeg (6 last)

Velez Mostar3-0Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg1-0Velez Mostar
Velez Mostar2-1Siroki Brijeg
Velez Mostar1-0Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg1-3Velez Mostar
Siroki Brijeg2-5Velez Mostar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Velez Mostar 1440 · Siroki Brijeg 1484

	Velez Mostar	Draw	Siroki Brijeg
Our model	48%	29%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Siroki Brijeg (rating 1440 vs 1484).
H2H favours Velez Mostar: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Velez Mostar	Siroki Brijeg
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.20

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +20’	1.85	3.20	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Mostar 5–0–1 Siroki Brijeg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Velez Mostar	3-0 HT 2-0	Siroki Brijeg
15/02/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Siroki Brijeg	1-0 HT 1-0	Velez Mostar
11/02/26 Bosnia & Herzegovina Cup	Velez Mostar	2-1 HT 1-0	Siroki Brijeg
25/10/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Velez Mostar	1-0 HT 1-0	Siroki Brijeg
10/08/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Siroki Brijeg	1-3 HT 1-0	Velez Mostar
28/03/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	Siroki Brijeg	2-5 HT 0-2	Velez Mostar

Standings · Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zrinjski Mostar	8	7	0	1	17	5	21
2	Borac Banja Luka	8	6	1	1	15	7	19
3	FK Sarajevo	8	4	1	3	6	5	13
4	Zeljeznicar	8	3	3	2	10	9	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	8	2	3	3	10	11	9
6	FK Sloga Doboj	8	2	3	3	5	8	9
7	NK Celik Zenica	8	2	2	4	11	12	8
8	BSK Banja Luka	8	2	2	4	12	14	8
9	Velez Mostar	8	2	1	5	6	14	7
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	0	4	4	12	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Velez Mostar	Siroki Brijeg
Zrinjski Mostar	0-2 L	1-2 L
FK Sarajevo	1-0 W	1-2 L
Zeljeznicar	1-3 L	1-1 D
Radnik Bijeljina	1-1 D	2-1 W
NK Celik Zenica	0-3 L	2-1 W
FK Sloga Doboj	2-0 W	0-0 D
BSK Banja Luka	0-2 L	1-1 D
Borac Banja Luka	1-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Siroki Brijeg (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Velez Mostar

LLLLWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
06/09	Zeljeznicar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
02/09	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
28/08	NK Celik Zenica Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	0-3	2	5	L
22/08	FK Sloga Doboj Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/08	BSK Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
09/08	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
26/05	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
21/05	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-3	2	3	L

Siroki Brijeg

DWDWWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Borac Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-1	2-3	2	2	L
12/09	BSK Banja Luka Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
06/09	Zrinjski Mostar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
02/09	FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-2	0	8	L
29/08	Zeljeznicar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
22/08	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
14/08	NK Celik Zenica Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
08/08	FK Sloga Doboj Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
25/05	Radnik Bijeljina Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	2-0	4-0	3	5	W
21/05	Zeljeznicar Bosnia & Herzegovina Premier Liga	1-2	2-2	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Velez Mostar vs Siroki Brijeg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Mostar win (49%). Probabilities: Velez Mostar 49%, draw 29%, Siroki Brijeg 23%.

How many goals are expected in Velez Mostar vs Siroki Brijeg?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Velez Mostar 1.46 · Siroki Brijeg 0.92), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Velez Mostar vs Siroki Brijeg?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.