Football · Ghana Premier League · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions

Team pages: Hearts of Oak · Heart of Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Hearts of Oak1.58

Heart of Lions0.63

1X2

60% 26% 14%

Hearts of Oak Draw Heart of Lions

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Hearts of Oak 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWWWL

Heart of Lions 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Hearts of Oak 2–3–1 Heart of Lions (6 last)

Heart of Lions0-0Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak0-0Heart of Lions
Hearts of Oak1-0Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions2-0Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak2-1Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions0-0Hearts of Oak

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hearts of Oak 1546 · Heart of Lions 1476

	Hearts of Oak	Draw	Heart of Lions
Our model	59%	27%	14%
Market	60%	26%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hearts of Oak (rating 1546 vs 1476).
H2H favours Hearts of Oak: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hearts of Oak	Heart of Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 1.9	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	6.00 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +3’	1.50	3.60	6.00
12:20 +10’	1.50	3.50▼	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hearts of Oak 2–3–1 Heart of Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	0-0 HT 0-0	Hearts of Oak
13/10/25 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	0-0 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
31/01/25 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	1-0 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
15/09/24 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	2-0 HT 0-0	Hearts of Oak
18/03/24 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	2-1 HT 0-1	Heart of Lions
08/11/23 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	0-0 HT 0-0	Hearts of Oak

Standings · Ghana Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Samartex	9	5	3	1	10	5	18
2	Medeama SC	9	5	3	1	15	8	18
3	Hearts of Oak	9	5	2	2	9	3	17
4	Aduana Stars	9	5	1	3	9	5	16
5	Port City FC Ghana	9	4	3	2	11	7	15
6	Ashanti Gold	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
7	Swedru All Blacks Utd	9	4	2	3	9	7	14
8	Bechem FC	9	4	1	4	12	11	13
9	Asante Kotoko	9	3	4	2	10	10	13
10	Basake Holy Stars FC	9	4	0	5	5	9	12
11	Berekum Chelsea	9	3	2	4	10	11	11
12	Vision FC	10	2	5	3	11	11	11
13	Karela United FC	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
14	Heart of Lions	9	3	2	4	10	13	11
15	Debibi United	9	3	1	5	8	12	10
16	Bibiani Gold Stars	9	3	1	5	8	10	10
17	Young Apostles	9	2	1	6	5	13	7
18	Dreams	9	1	3	5	8	14	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hearts of Oak	Heart of Lions
Bechem FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Bibiani Gold Stars	2-1 W	1-2 L
Berekum Chelsea	4-0 W	0-2 L
Medeama SC	4-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts of Oak (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hearts of Oak

WWWDLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Debibi United Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/10	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
17/10	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
11/10	Port City FC Ghana Ghana Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
03/10	Dreams Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
26/09	Karela United FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
24/05	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-0	4-2	1	3	W

Heart of Lions

LDLDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
25/10	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
17/10	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/10	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
04/10	Ashanti Gold Ghana Premier League	3-1	3-2	7	4	W
27/09	Young Apostles Ghana Premier League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	Swedru All Blacks Utd Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
13/09	Asante Kotoko Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
06/09	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
17/05	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-2	2-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hearts of Oak win (60%). Probabilities: Hearts of Oak 60%, draw 26%, Heart of Lions 14%.

How many goals are expected in Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Hearts of Oak 1.58 · Heart of Lions 0.63), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.