Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 04/10, 12:00

Prediction: SC Farense vs Chaves

Team pages: SC Farense · Chaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

SC Farense1.4

Chaves1.09

1X2

43% 29% 28%

SC Farense Draw Chaves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Farense 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWWDLD

Chaves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLDLW

Head-to-head

SC Farense 1–1–4 Chaves (6 last)

Chaves2-0SC Farense
SC Farense0-2Chaves
Chaves1-1SC Farense
SC Farense5-0Chaves
SC Farense1-2Chaves
Chaves2-1SC Farense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Farense 1546 · Chaves 1449

	SC Farense	Draw	Chaves
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Farense (rating 1546 vs 1449).
H2H favours Chaves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Farense	Chaves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.21
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.34 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +9’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +1’	2.04	3.42	3.55
00:16 +61’	2.19▲	3.32▼	3.30▼
12:03 +117’	2.20▲	3.35▲	3.34▲
00:04 +72’	2.21▲	3.37▲	3.36▲
05:52 +41’	2.21	3.34▼	3.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Farense 1–1–4 Chaves

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	2-0 HT 1-0	SC Farense
28/09/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	0-2 HT 0-0	Chaves
04/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Chaves	1-1 HT 0-1	SC Farense
26/08/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	SC Farense	5-0 HT 4-0	Chaves
30/04/22 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	1-2 HT 0-1	Chaves
18/12/21 Portugal Segunda Liga	Chaves	2-1 HT 2-0	SC Farense

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lusitania Lourosa	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13	5	13
3	Sporting B	6	4	0	2	8	6	12
4	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
5	Benfica B	6	3	1	2	7	5	10
6	UD Leiria	6	3	1	2	10	7	10
7	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Academica	6	3	0	3	8	10	9
9	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7	6	9
10	SC Farense	5	2	2	1	7	5	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4	6	7
12	AVS	6	1	3	2	6	6	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
14	SCU Torreense	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
17	FC Porto B	6	1	1	4	4	13	4
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1	8	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Farense	Chaves
AVS	0-0 D	2-2 D
Sporting B	1-2 L	0-1 L
Felgueiras 1932	1-1 D	1-2 L
Portimonense	0-1 L	2-3 L
Pacos Ferreira	1-1 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SC Farense (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Farense

WDWDLWWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
30/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
24/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
16/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
09/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	10	2	W
17/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
09/05	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
25/04	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/04	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	4	7	W

Chaves

LWLLWLLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
23/08	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
15/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
08/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-4	9	1	L
15/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
09/05	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
03/05	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-2	2-3	8	4	L
27/04	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/04	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	3-3	3-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Farense vs Chaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Farense win (43%). Probabilities: SC Farense 43%, draw 29%, Chaves 28%.

How many goals are expected in SC Farense vs Chaves?

The model expects 2.49 goals (SC Farense 1.4 · Chaves 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Farense vs Chaves?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.