Football · Serbia Super Liga · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki Nis

Team pages: Crvena Zvezda · Radnicki Nis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Crvena Zvezda2.34

Radnicki Nis0.4

1X2

81% 13% 5%

Crvena Zvezda Draw Radnicki Nis

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

2-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Crvena Zvezda 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWWDW

Radnicki Nis 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDLDLW

Head-to-head

Crvena Zvezda 5–1–0 Radnicki Nis (6 last)

Crvena Zvezda2-0Radnicki Nis
Radnicki Nis0-0Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki Nis0-3Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda5-1Radnicki Nis
Radnicki Nis0-2Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda5-0Radnicki Nis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crvena Zvezda 1584 · Radnicki Nis 1498

	Crvena Zvezda	Draw	Radnicki Nis
Our model	80%	15%	4%
Market	82%	12%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1584 vs 1498).
H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crvena Zvezda	Radnicki Nis
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.4	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.82

2 (+2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +17’	1.13	8.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crvena Zvezda 5–1–0 Radnicki Nis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	2-0 HT 1-0	Radnicki Nis
26/10/25 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	0-0 HT 0-0	Crvena Zvezda
08/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	0-3 HT 0-2	Crvena Zvezda
18/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	5-1 HT 3-0	Radnicki Nis
13/03/24 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	0-2 HT 0-1	Crvena Zvezda
06/12/23 Serbia Cup	Crvena Zvezda	5-0 HT 5-0	Radnicki Nis

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	8	7	1	0	19	2	22
2	Vojvodina	9	7	0	2	20	9	21
3	FK Radnicki 1923	8	4	2	2	12	6	14
4	IMT Novi Belgrade	9	4	2	3	11	6	14
5	Mladost Lucani	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
6	FK Radnik Surdulica	8	3	3	2	9	10	12
7	FK Novi Pazar	9	3	3	3	8	9	12
8	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
9	FK Cukaricki	9	3	2	4	11	16	11
10	OFK Beograd	9	2	3	4	10	16	9
11	FK Macva Sabac	9	2	2	5	5	15	8
12	Radnicki Nis	8	2	2	4	6	8	8
13	Partizan Belgrade	8	2	1	5	13	15	7
14	FK Zemun	8	0	1	7	3	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crvena Zvezda	Radnicki Nis
IMT Novi Belgrade	1-0 W	0-0 D
FK Zemun	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Cukaricki	4-0 W	0-2 L
FK Macva Sabac	5-0 W	0-1 L
OFK Beograd	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crvena Zvezda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
10/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/09	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-1	2	9	W
30/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W
08/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
26/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
17/07	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
22/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Radnicki Nis

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
05/09	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
29/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
22/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
16/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
02/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
25/07	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
17/07	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
24/05	Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki Nis?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crvena Zvezda win (81%). Probabilities: Crvena Zvezda 81%, draw 13%, Radnicki Nis 5%.

How many goals are expected in Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki Nis?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Crvena Zvezda 2.34 · Radnicki Nis 0.4), with a 60% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki Nis?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.