Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 06/09, 05:00
Prediction: Marquense vs Xelaju
Team pages: Marquense · Xelaju
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Marquense1.42
Xelaju1.17
1X2
Marquense
Draw
Xelaju
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Marquense
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Xelaju
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marquense
2–1–3
Xelaju
(6 last)
- Xelaju2-0Marquense
- Marquense1-1Xelaju
- Marquense1-0Xelaju
- Xelaju4-2Marquense
- Marquense1-0Xelaju
- Xelaju3-1Marquense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marquense 1482 · Xelaju 1499
| Marquense | Draw | Xelaju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Xelaju: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marquense | Xelaju | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.6 / 3 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.5 | 5.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marquense 2–1–3 Xelaju
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Marquense |
| 01/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Xelaju |
| 02/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 16/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Marquense |
| 06/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 01/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Marquense |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Deportivo San Pedro | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Guastatoya | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Aurora | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 5 | Deportivo Mixco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 7 | Marquense | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Xelaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | CSD Comunicaciones | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 5 |
| 11 | Coban Imperial | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 4 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marquense | Xelaju |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Mixco | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| CSD Municipal | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marquense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/08 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 03/08 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 01/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Xelaju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/08 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marquense vs Xelaju?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marquense win (42%). Probabilities: Marquense 42%, draw 29%, Xelaju 30%.
How many goals are expected in Marquense vs Xelaju?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Marquense 1.42 · Xelaju 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Marquense vs Xelaju?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.